Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao B vs Racing Ferrol

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao B · Racing Ferrol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Athletic Bilbao B1.23

Racing Ferrol0.98

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Athletic Bilbao B Draw Racing Ferrol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao B 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Racing Ferrol 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao B 1–2–1 Racing Ferrol (4 last)

Athletic Bilbao B0-1Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol0-1Athletic Bilbao B
Racing Ferrol1-1Athletic Bilbao B
Athletic Bilbao B2-2Racing Ferrol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao B 1492 · Racing Ferrol 1508

	Athletic Bilbao B	Draw	Racing Ferrol
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao B	Racing Ferrol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	3.4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +10’	2.10	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao B 1–2–1 Racing Ferrol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Athletic Bilbao B	0-1 HT 0-1	Racing Ferrol
10/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Racing Ferrol	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao B
15/05/22 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Racing Ferrol	1-1 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao B
05/09/21 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Athletic Bilbao B	2-2 HT 1-1	Racing Ferrol

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao B	Racing Ferrol
Unionistas de Salamanca CF	1-2 L	1-0 W
Real Unión	0-0 D	3-2 W
CD Extremadura	1-3 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Fabril	2-2 D	1-0 W
Pontevedra	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Racing Ferrol (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
31/10	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
24/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
18/10	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
11/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/10	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-3	8	7	L
26/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
20/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
12/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Racing Ferrol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
31/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	12	8	D
24/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
17/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
10/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
03/10	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
26/09	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	13	7	L
19/09	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
13/09	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao B vs Racing Ferrol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao B win (42%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao B 42%, draw 29%, Racing Ferrol 29%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao B vs Racing Ferrol?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Athletic Bilbao B 1.23 · Racing Ferrol 0.98), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao B vs Racing Ferrol?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.