Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 14/11, 16:30

Prediction: Real Unión vs Cultural Leonesa

Team pages: Real Unión · Cultural Leonesa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Real Unión1.44

Cultural Leonesa1.21

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Real Unión Draw Cultural Leonesa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Unión 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Cultural Leonesa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Unión 0–4–2 Cultural Leonesa (6 last)

Cultural Leonesa1-1Real Unión
Real Unión0-1Cultural Leonesa
Real Unión0-0Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa2-0Real Unión
Real Unión1-1Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa1-1Real Unión

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Unión 1478 · Cultural Leonesa 1495

	Real Unión	Draw	Cultural Leonesa
Our model	41%	28%	30%
Market	42%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cultural Leonesa: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Unión	Cultural Leonesa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +4’	2.15	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Unión 0–4–2 Cultural Leonesa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Cultural Leonesa	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Unión
22/12/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Unión	0-1 HT 0-0	Cultural Leonesa
04/05/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Unión	0-0 HT 0-0	Cultural Leonesa
02/12/23 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Cultural Leonesa	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Unión
03/04/22 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Unión	1-1 HT 0-0	Cultural Leonesa
22/01/22 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Cultural Leonesa	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Unión

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	11	9	1	1	19	9	28
2	UD Logrones	11	7	2	2	22	14	23
3	Pontevedra	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	Real Aviles CF	11	5	2	4	23	15	17
5	Mirandes	11	5	2	4	13	12	17
6	Racing Ferrol	11	5	2	4	10	9	17
7	CD Extremadura	11	5	1	5	21	15	16
8	Merida	11	5	1	5	18	14	16
9	Athletic Bilbao B	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
10	Cacereno	11	4	3	4	9	9	15
11	Ponferradina	11	3	6	2	7	7	15
12	Barakaldo	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
13	Real Unión	11	3	4	4	19	19	13
14	Cultural Leonesa	11	3	4	4	11	11	13
15	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	11	4	1	6	13	18	13
16	Zamora CF	11	3	3	5	11	13	12
17	CD Coria	11	3	3	5	14	17	12
18	Deportivo Fabril	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	11	3	2	6	10	23	11
20	UD Ourense	11	2	2	7	4	16	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Unión	Cultural Leonesa
CD Extremadura	2-2 D	1-0 W
UD Ourense	1-1 D	0-1 L
Unionistas de Salamanca CF	4-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Unión (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Unión

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-2	10	4	L
31/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	3	8	L
23/10	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
17/10	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
11/10	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
03/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
26/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
19/09	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
13/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-3	2	2	L
05/09	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	4-2	3	5	W

Cultural Leonesa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	7	8	D
01/11	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
24/10	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
18/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
12/10	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	4-1	6	5	W
03/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
20/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/09	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Unión vs Cultural Leonesa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Unión win (41%). Probabilities: Real Unión 41%, draw 28%, Cultural Leonesa 31%.

How many goals are expected in Real Unión vs Cultural Leonesa?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Real Unión 1.44 · Cultural Leonesa 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Unión vs Cultural Leonesa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.