Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 13/11, 19:00
Prediction: Ponferradina vs Cacereno
Team pages: Ponferradina · Cacereno
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.67Total
Ponferradina1.07
Cacereno0.6
1X2
Ponferradina
Draw
Cacereno
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
0-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Ponferradina
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Cacereno
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ponferradina
2–1–0
Cacereno
(3 last)
- Cacereno0-0Ponferradina
- Ponferradina2-0Cacereno
- Cacereno1-2Ponferradina
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ponferradina 1498 · Cacereno 1470
| Ponferradina | Draw | Cacereno | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 35% | 19% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ponferradina: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ponferradina | Cacereno | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.6 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponferradina 2–1–0 Cacereno
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Cacereno | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ponferradina |
| 02/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Ponferradina | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Cacereno |
| 01/12/21 Spain Copa del Rey | Cacereno | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Ponferradina |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | UD Logrones | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Pontevedra | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Real Aviles CF | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 17 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Racing Ferrol | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | CD Extremadura | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 16 |
| 8 | Merida | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 9 | Athletic Bilbao B | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Cacereno | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 15 |
| 11 | Ponferradina | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 12 | Barakaldo | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Real Unión | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 13 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| 15 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Zamora CF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 12 |
| 18 | Deportivo Fabril | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| 19 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 11 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ponferradina | Cacereno |
|---|---|---|
| Cultural Leonesa | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Zamora CF | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Pontevedra | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Merida | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Fabril | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Lugo | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ponferradina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 31/10 | Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 24/10 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/10 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 04/10 | Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Cacereno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 31/10 | Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 18/10 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 10/10 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 27/09 | UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ponferradina vs Cacereno?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ponferradina win (47%). Probabilities: Ponferradina 47%, draw 32%, Cacereno 21%.
How many goals are expected in Ponferradina vs Cacereno?
The model expects 1.67 goals (Ponferradina 1.07 · Cacereno 0.6), with a 62% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ponferradina vs Cacereno?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.