Football · Wales Championship North · 23/10, 20:45

Prediction: Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath

Team pages: Denbigh Town · Gresford Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Denbigh Town2.23

Gresford Ath1.04

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Denbigh Town Draw Gresford Ath

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Denbigh Town 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Gresford Ath 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Denbigh Town 3–1–2 Gresford Ath (6 last)

Denbigh Town2-3Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath0-5Denbigh Town
Gresford Ath3-3Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town5-1Gresford Ath
Denbigh Town2-5Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath1-2Denbigh Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Denbigh Town 1442 · Gresford Ath 1439

	Denbigh Town	Draw	Gresford Ath
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Denbigh Town: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Denbigh Town	Gresford Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	0.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	0.8 / 1.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +16’	1.40	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Denbigh Town 3–1–2 Gresford Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	2-3 HT 1-1	Gresford Ath
15/08/25 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	0-5 HT 0-2	Denbigh Town
12/04/25 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	3-3 HT 1-0	Denbigh Town
23/08/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	5-1 HT 2-1	Gresford Ath
19/03/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	2-5 HT 1-1	Gresford Ath
28/10/23 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	1-2 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	9	0	2	26	10	27
2	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
3	Newtown	10	7	2	1	18	3	23
4	Porthmadog	11	7	2	2	18	11	23
5	Bala Town	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
6	Caersws	10	5	3	2	22	15	18
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	11	4	4	3	16	14	16
9	Buckley Town	11	4	3	4	25	19	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	10	4	1	5	17	24	13
11	Rhyl	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
12	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
13	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	2	2	6	12	19	8
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Denbigh Town	Gresford Ath
Guilsfield	2-0 W	1-1 D
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	0-5 L
Bala Town	5-2 W	0-3 L
Newtown	0-1 L	0-3 L
Rhyl	1-3 L	3-1 W
Penrhyncoch	2-2 D	1-0 W
Porthmadog	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Denbigh Town (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Denbigh Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	2-1	2-4	3	4	L
26/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-0	5-2	4	2	W
05/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
14/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
08/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L

Gresford Ath

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-5	1-5	–	–	L
31/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
08/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Denbigh Town win (64%). Probabilities: Denbigh Town 64%, draw 20%, Gresford Ath 16%.

How many goals are expected in Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Denbigh Town 2.23 · Gresford Ath 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Denbigh Town vs Gresford Ath?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.