Football · Wales Championship North · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra

Team pages: Penrhyncoch · Mold Alexandra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Penrhyncoch1.24

Mold Alexandra2.39

1X2

18% 20% 62%

Penrhyncoch Draw Mold Alexandra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Penrhyncoch 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLL

Mold Alexandra 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Penrhyncoch 2–3–1 Mold Alexandra (6 last)

Penrhyncoch3-1Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra2-2Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch0-0Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-2Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch1-3Mold Alexandra
Penrhyncoch2-2Mold Alexandra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penrhyncoch 1389 · Mold Alexandra 1574

	Penrhyncoch	Draw	Mold Alexandra
Our model	18%	20%	62%
Market	18%	20%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mold Alexandra (rating 1389 vs 1574).
H2H favours Penrhyncoch: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penrhyncoch	Mold Alexandra
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 3.1	2.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.8	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +12’	5.00	4.50	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penrhyncoch 2–3–1 Mold Alexandra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	3-1 HT 2-1	Mold Alexandra
26/07/25 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	2-2 HT 1-1	Penrhyncoch
22/03/25 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	0-0 HT 0-0	Mold Alexandra
02/11/24 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-2 HT 1-0	Penrhyncoch
19/10/24 Wales Cup	Penrhyncoch	1-3 HT 1-0	Mold Alexandra
11/03/23 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	2-2	Mold Alexandra

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	9	0	2	26	10	27
2	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
3	Newtown	10	7	2	1	18	3	23
4	Porthmadog	11	7	2	2	18	11	23
5	Bala Town	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
6	Caersws	10	5	3	2	22	15	18
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	11	4	4	3	16	14	16
9	Buckley Town	11	4	3	4	25	19	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	10	4	1	5	17	24	13
11	Rhyl	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
12	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
13	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	2	2	6	12	19	8
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penrhyncoch	Mold Alexandra
CPD Llanuwchllyn	1-4 L	2-2 D
Gresford Ath	0-1 L	5-1 W
Ruthin Town FC	0-2 L	4-0 W
Bala Town	0-1 L	4-2 W
Bangor 1876 FC	1-5 L	2-1 W
Buckley Town	0-5 L	1-0 W
Guilsfield	0-4 L	2-3 L
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	4-0 W
Newtown	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 9 L	6 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penrhyncoch

LLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
03/10	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
25/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
15/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-4	1-5	–	–	L
05/09	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
28/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
08/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-3	0-5	1	0	L

Mold Alexandra

LWWWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
03/10	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
26/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
12/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	14	4	D
06/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	5-1	5-1	–	–	W
31/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
21/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mold Alexandra win (62%). Probabilities: Penrhyncoch 18%, draw 20%, Mold Alexandra 62%.

How many goals are expected in Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Penrhyncoch 1.24 · Mold Alexandra 2.39), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.