Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 16/08, 21:30
Prediction: Braga vs Gil Vicente
Team pages: Braga · Gil Vicente
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Braga1.54
Gil Vicente0.69
1X2
Braga
Draw
Gil Vicente
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Braga
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Gil Vicente
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Braga
2–2–2
Gil Vicente
(6 last)
- Gil Vicente2-1Braga
- Braga0-1Gil Vicente
- Braga2-0Gil Vicente
- Gil Vicente0-0Braga
- Braga2-1Gil Vicente
- Gil Vicente3-3Braga
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Braga 1573 · Gil Vicente 1515
| Braga | Draw | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 28% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1573 vs 1515).
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Braga | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.9 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/75/0% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 2 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Braga 2–2–2 Gil Vicente
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Gil Vicente | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Braga |
| 14/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gil Vicente |
| 09/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gil Vicente |
| 01/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Gil Vicente | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Braga |
| 16/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Gil Vicente |
| 28/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Gil Vicente | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Braga |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Braga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 06/08 | Dinamo Minsk UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 22/07 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Celta Vigo Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 10/07 | Stoke Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | Buxton Club Friendly List |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/07 | Sao Joao Ver Club Friendly List |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
Gil Vicente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | FC Porto Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Braga vs Gil Vicente?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Braga win (58%). Probabilities: Braga 58%, draw 26%, Gil Vicente 16%.
How many goals are expected in Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Braga 1.54 · Gil Vicente 0.69), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.