Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 08/11, 16:30

Prediction: Estoril vs Maritimo

Team pages: Estoril · Maritimo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Estoril1.51

Maritimo1.08

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Estoril Draw Maritimo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Estoril 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLLLL

Maritimo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Estoril 3–2–1 Maritimo (6 last)

Estoril3-1Maritimo
Maritimo1-0Estoril
Maritimo0-0Estoril
Estoril2-1Maritimo
Maritimo1-1Estoril
Maritimo0-1Estoril

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estoril 1406 · Maritimo 1453

	Estoril	Draw	Maritimo
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maritimo (rating 1406 vs 1453).
H2H favours Estoril: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estoril	Maritimo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.9	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.12
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.53 ★
2	3.30 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +5’	2.10	3.40	3.30
07:05 +15’	2.05▼	3.40	3.40▲
03:17 +1’	2.05	3.40	3.60▲
20:24 +1’	1.80▼	3.60▲	4.50▲
22:03 +5’	1.95▲	3.50▼	4.00▼
22:55 +9’	2.05▲	3.40▼	3.60▼
15:01 +16’	2.05	3.30▼	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +14’	2.09	3.53	3.49
17:11 +27’	2.08▼	3.55▲	3.49
04:34 +47’	2.08	3.57▲	3.48▼
16:44 +46’	2.11▲	3.57	3.53▲
21:12	2.12▲	3.53▼	3.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estoril 3–2–1 Maritimo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	3-1 HT 1-0	Maritimo
22/01/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Maritimo	1-0 HT 1-0	Estoril
05/02/22 Portugal Primeira Liga	Maritimo	0-0 HT 0-0	Estoril
27/08/21 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	2-1 HT 1-1	Maritimo
27/01/21 Portugal Cup	Maritimo	1-1 HT 1-0	Estoril
29/12/18 Portugal League Cup	Maritimo	0-1 HT 0-1	Estoril

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	25	4	30
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	27	8	25
3	Sporting	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	13	8	20
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	15	12	20
7	Gil Vicente	10	4	3	3	8	7	15
8	Braga	10	4	2	4	12	11	14
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	13	17	14
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	15	14	13
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	15	19	10
13	Guimaraes	10	2	3	5	10	10	9
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	9	21	8
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	10	19	7
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	9	23	7
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	5	19	7
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	5	19	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estoril	Maritimo
FC Porto	0-4 L	1-2 L
Moreirense	1-3 L	1-3 L
Academico Viseu	1-2 L	2-2 D
Casa Pia	1-2 L	1-0 W
Arouca	0-0 D	1-2 L
Benfica	1-2 L	0-3 L
Famalicao	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Maritimo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estoril

DLLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	0	1	L
25/10	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	6	4	L
10/10	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
20/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
14/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
07/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
31/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
22/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
16/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
07/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D

Maritimo

WWDLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/10	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-5	5	7	L
10/10	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
19/09	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
14/09	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
05/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
29/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	2-2	4	8	D
16/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
08/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estoril vs Maritimo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estoril win (46%). Probabilities: Estoril 46%, draw 28%, Maritimo 26%.

How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Maritimo?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Estoril 1.51 · Maritimo 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Maritimo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.