Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 20/11, 20:30
Prediction: Bayern Munich vs Cologne
Team pages: Bayern Munich · Cologne
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.46Total
Bayern Munich3.23
Cologne1.23
1X2
Bayern Munich
Draw
Cologne
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Bayern Munich
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Cologne
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayern Munich
6–0
Cologne
(6 last)
- Bayern Munich5-1Cologne
- Cologne1-3Bayern Munich
- Cologne1-4Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich2-0Cologne
- Cologne0-1Bayern Munich
- Cologne1-2Bayern Munich
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayern Munich 1631 · Cologne 1466
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Cologne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 87% | 9% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1631 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayern Munich | Cologne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 8.2 | 2.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich 6–0–0 Cologne
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Cologne |
| 14/01/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 29/10/25 Germany DFB Pokal | Cologne | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Bayern Munich |
| 13/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Cologne |
| 24/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 27/05/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Cologne | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bayern Munich |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 13 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 12 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Mainz | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 10 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Cologne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Schalke | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayern Munich | Cologne |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 7-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Schalke | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| VfB Stuttgart | 5-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bayern Munich (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayern Munich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 31/10 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 6-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 18/09 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 7-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 28/08 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Cologne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 01/11 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 24/10 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 04/09 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs Cologne?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayern Munich win (82%). Probabilities: Bayern Munich 82%, draw 11%, Cologne 7%.
How many goals are expected in Bayern Munich vs Cologne?
The model expects 4.46 goals (Bayern Munich 3.23 · Cologne 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs Cologne?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.