Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 22/11, 15:30
Prediction: Augsburg vs Mainz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.82Total
Augsburg1.86
Mainz1.96
1X2
Augsburg
Draw
Mainz
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Augsburg
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Mainz
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Augsburg
1–1–4
Mainz
(6 last)
- Mainz2-0Augsburg
- Augsburg1-4Mainz
- Mainz0-0Augsburg
- Augsburg2-3Mainz
- Mainz1-0Augsburg
- Augsburg2-1Mainz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Augsburg 1476 · Mainz 1479
| Augsburg | Draw | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Mainz: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Augsburg | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.4 | 2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.3 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Augsburg 1–1–4 Mainz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Augsburg |
| 20/09/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Mainz |
| 08/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Augsburg |
| 20/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Mainz |
| 17/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Mainz | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Augsburg |
| 23/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Augsburg | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Mainz |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 13 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 12 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Mainz | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 10 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Cologne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Schalke | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Augsburg | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 3-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Bayern Munich | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Werder Bremen | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 D | 3-4 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Schalke | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Augsburg (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Augsburg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/10 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 3-4 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
Mainz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 30/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 24/10 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 12/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Mainz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mainz win (40%). Probabilities: Augsburg 36%, draw 24%, Mainz 40%.
How many goals are expected in Augsburg vs Mainz?
The model expects 3.82 goals (Augsburg 1.86 · Mainz 1.96), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Mainz?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.