Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 21/11, 15:30
Prediction: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Team pages: Union Berlin · RB Leipzig
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Union Berlin1.18
RB Leipzig2.22
1X2
Union Berlin
Draw
RB Leipzig
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-2 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Berlin
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
RB Leipzig
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Berlin
1–2–3
RB Leipzig
(6 last)
- RB Leipzig3-1Union Berlin
- Union Berlin3-1RB Leipzig
- Union Berlin0-0RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig0-0Union Berlin
- RB Leipzig2-0Union Berlin
- Union Berlin0-3RB Leipzig
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Berlin 1460 · RB Leipzig 1530
| Union Berlin | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 22% | 60% |
| Market | 19% | 21% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RB Leipzig (rating 1460 vs 1530).
- H2H favours RB Leipzig: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 2.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.3 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Berlin 1–2–3 RB Leipzig
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Union Berlin |
| 12/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 3-1 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 01/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 0-0 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
| 14/09/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Berlin |
| 04/02/24 Germany Bundesliga I | RB Leipzig | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union Berlin |
| 03/09/23 Germany Bundesliga I | Union Berlin | 0-3 HT 0-0 | RB Leipzig |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 16 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | 13 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 12 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburg | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 12 |
| 12 | Mainz | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 10 |
| 13 | Paderborn | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Cologne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 7 |
| 17 | Schalke | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia M'gladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Berlin | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Augsburg | 1-1 D | 5-2 W |
| Elversberg | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Bayern Munich | 0-7 L | 1-6 L |
| Schalke | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-3 D | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: RB Leipzig (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Berlin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 01/11 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 24/10 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
RB Leipzig
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/10 | Schalke Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
4-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
According to our model, the most likely result is an RB Leipzig win (60%). Probabilities: Union Berlin 19%, draw 21%, RB Leipzig 60%.
How many goals are expected in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Union Berlin 1.18 · RB Leipzig 2.22), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.