Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 21/11, 15:30

Prediction: Borussia M'gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund

Team pages: Borussia M'gladbach · Borussia Dortmund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Borussia M'gladbach1

Borussia Dortmund1.78

1X2

21% 24% 55%

Borussia M'gladbach Draw Borussia Dortmund

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Borussia M'gladbach 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWDL

Borussia Dortmund 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Borussia M'gladbach 1–1–4 Borussia Dortmund (6 last)

Borussia M'gladbach1-0Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund2-0Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia Dortmund3-2Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach1-1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia M'gladbach1-2Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund4-2Borussia M'gladbach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Borussia M'gladbach 1481 · Borussia Dortmund 1605

	Borussia M'gladbach	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	21%	23%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Borussia Dortmund (rating 1481 vs 1605).
H2H favours Borussia Dortmund: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Borussia M'gladbach	Borussia Dortmund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.5	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.10

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.91 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.47
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 3.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	4.33	4.10	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +4’	4.87	4.44	1.64
16:16 +3’	4.91▲	4.47▲	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Borussia M'gladbach 1–1–4 Borussia Dortmund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-0 HT 0-0	Borussia Dortmund
19/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	2-0 HT 1-0	Borussia M'gladbach
20/04/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	3-2 HT 3-1	Borussia M'gladbach
07/12/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-1 HT 0-0	Borussia Dortmund
13/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia M'gladbach	1-2 HT 1-2	Borussia Dortmund
25/11/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Borussia Dortmund	4-2 HT 3-2	Borussia M'gladbach

Standings · Germany Bundesliga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	3	0	29	9	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	16	7	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	6	1	2	20	10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	27	13	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	20	17	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	17	15	15
7	Elversberg	9	4	1	4	17	18	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	15	15	12
9	TSG Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	16	17	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	15	20	12
11	Hamburg	9	4	0	5	10	20	12
12	Mainz	9	3	1	5	18	19	10
13	Paderborn	9	2	4	3	8	11	10
14	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20	20	9
15	Cologne	9	2	3	4	10	14	9
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	7	21	7
17	Schalke	9	1	3	5	5	11	6
18	Borussia M'gladbach	9	1	1	7	12	25	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Borussia M'gladbach	Borussia Dortmund
Hamburg	1-3 L	2-0 W
Paderborn	0-0 D	3-0 W
VfB Stuttgart	3-2 W	1-0 W
TSG Hoffenheim	1-2 L	3-2 W
Elversberg	3-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Borussia Dortmund (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Borussia M'gladbach

WLLLLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
31/10	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
23/10	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
18/10	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
11/10	Cologne Germany Bundesliga I	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/09	Mainz Germany Bundesliga I	1-2	3-4	6	11	L
12/09	SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I	0-2	0-5	2	5	L
05/09	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	2-1	3-4	13	4	L
29/08	RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
16/05	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	4-0	2	10	W

Borussia Dortmund

WWWWWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
31/10	Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
24/10	Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	13	2	W
17/10	Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
09/10	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
12/09	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga I	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
05/09	TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I	0-1	3-2	3	6	W
29/08	Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I	0-0	2-0	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Borussia M'gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Borussia Dortmund win (55%). Probabilities: Borussia M'gladbach 21%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 55%.

How many goals are expected in Borussia M'gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Borussia M'gladbach 1 · Borussia Dortmund 1.78), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Borussia M'gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.