Football · Wales Championship South · 30/10, 20:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Treowen Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Baglan Dragons1.64

Treowen Stars1.45

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Baglan Dragons Draw Treowen Stars

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Treowen Stars 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 0–2 Treowen Stars (2 last)

Treowen Stars4-1Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons3-4Treowen Stars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1513 · Treowen Stars 1487

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Treowen Stars
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Treowen Stars: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Treowen Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +7’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 0–0–2 Treowen Stars

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	4-1 HT 1-1	Baglan Dragons
24/10/25 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	3-4 HT 2-1	Treowen Stars

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	11	6	3	2	28	21	21
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	11	4	4	3	23	19	16
8	Carmarthen	11	4	3	4	23	24	15
9	Afan Lido	12	4	3	5	21	22	15
10	Caerphilly Athletic	11	4	2	5	15	20	14
11	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	Llantwit Major	10	3	2	5	10	21	11
13	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
14	Newport City FC	9	2	3	4	16	13	9
15	Cardiff Draconians	9	2	3	4	12	17	9
16	Llanelli Town	12	0	2	10	9	36	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Treowen Stars
Pontypridd Utd	1-1 D	2-3 L
Llanelli Town	2-1 W	2-0 W
Carmarthen	1-2 L	4-2 W
Caerphilly Athletic	0-1 L	3-0 W
Caerau Ely	3-1 W	2-3 L
Llantwit Major	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
02/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
25/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L

Treowen Stars

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	1-3	9	6	L
03/10	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
26/09	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-5	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
04/09	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Baglan Dragons win (42%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 42%, draw 25%, Treowen Stars 33%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Baglan Dragons 1.64 · Treowen Stars 1.45), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.