Prediction: Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth
Team pages: Ynyshir Albions · Aberystwyth
- Ynyshir Albions0-0Aberystwyth
- Aberystwyth4-0Ynyshir Albions
| Ynyshir Albions | Draw | Aberystwyth | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ynyshir Albions (rating 1503 vs 1461).
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ynyshir Albions | Aberystwyth | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ynyshir Albions 0–1–1 Aberystwyth
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Wales Championship South | Ynyshir Albions | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Aberystwyth |
| 22/11/25 Wales Championship South | Aberystwyth | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Ynyshir Albions |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Carmarthen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Ynyshir Albions | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Afan Lido | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Newport City FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Pontardawe Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Caerau Ely | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | Cardiff Draconians | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Llanelli Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Baglan Dragons | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ynyshir Albions | Aberystwyth |
|---|---|---|
| Caerau Ely | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Cwmbran Celtic | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Treowen Stars | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ynyshir Albions (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ynyshir Albions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Carmarthen Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/03 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/02 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Aberystwyth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Llantwit Major Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 07/03 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberystwyth win (44%). Probabilities: Ynyshir Albions 30%, draw 26%, Aberystwyth 44%.
How many goals are expected in Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Ynyshir Albions 1.26 · Aberystwyth 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ynyshir Albions vs Aberystwyth?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.