Football · Wales Championship South · 31/08, 15:30

Prediction: Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major

Team pages: Pontypridd Utd · Llantwit Major

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Pontypridd Utd2.7

Llantwit Major1.05

1X2

72% 17% 12%

Pontypridd Utd Draw Llantwit Major

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWWWWD

Llantwit Major 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Pontypridd Utd 1–2–3 Llantwit Major (6 last)

Pontypridd Utd0-4Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major2-0Pontypridd Utd
Llantwit Major1-1Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd1-1Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major3-1Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd4-0Llantwit Major

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pontypridd Utd 1523 · Llantwit Major 1418

	Pontypridd Utd	Draw	Llantwit Major
Our model	71%	17%	12%
Market	72%	16%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1523 vs 1418).
H2H favours Llantwit Major: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pontypridd Utd	Llantwit Major
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.1 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/0/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +5’	1.25	5.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontypridd Utd 1–2–3 Llantwit Major

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	0-4 HT 0-0	Llantwit Major
11/10/25 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	2-0 HT 2-0	Pontypridd Utd
23/11/24 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	1-1 HT 0-0	Pontypridd Utd
07/09/24 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	1-1 HT 0-0	Llantwit Major
12/02/22 Wales Championship South	Llantwit Major	3-1	Pontypridd Utd
23/10/21 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	4-0	Llantwit Major

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pontypridd Utd	Llantwit Major
Pure Swansea	4-4 D	0-3 L
Caerau Ely	0-0 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pontypridd Utd

LLWDDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
04/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L

Llantwit Major

WLLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
15/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
07/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-1	0-5	3	7	L
01/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
18/04	Cambrian United Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
04/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
28/03	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	6	4	L
20/03	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-0	1-4	3	8	L
14/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	4	6	L
10/03	Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontypridd Utd win (72%). Probabilities: Pontypridd Utd 72%, draw 17%, Llantwit Major 12%.

How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Pontypridd Utd 2.7 · Llantwit Major 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pontypridd Utd vs Llantwit Major?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.