Football · Wales Championship South · 05/09, 15:30
Prediction: Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians
Team pages: Llantwit Major · Cardiff Draconians
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.55Total
Llantwit Major1.45
Cardiff Draconians2.1
1X2
Llantwit Major
Draw
Cardiff Draconians
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Llantwit Major
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Cardiff Draconians
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Llantwit Major
0–2
Cardiff Draconians
(2 last)
- Cardiff Draconians2-0Llantwit Major
- Llantwit Major0-2Cardiff Draconians
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Llantwit Major 1380 · Cardiff Draconians 1498
| Llantwit Major | Draw | Cardiff Draconians | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cardiff Draconians (rating 1380 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Cardiff Draconians: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Llantwit Major | Cardiff Draconians | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 3.1 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/0/70% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Llantwit Major 0–0–2 Cardiff Draconians
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 Wales Championship South | Cardiff Draconians | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Llantwit Major |
| 27/09/25 Wales Championship South | Llantwit Major | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Cardiff Draconians |
Standings · Wales Championship South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Utd | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | 13 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Carmarthen | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 10 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 10 | Caerau Ely | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Newport City FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 15 | Llanelli Town | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 2 |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Llantwit Major
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/08 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Pure Swansea Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/04 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Caerau Ely Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/03 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/03 | Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Cardiff Draconians
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Llanelli Town Wales Championship South |
3-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Afan Lido Wales Championship South |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 04/04 | Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South |
2-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/03 | Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cardiff Draconians win (52%). Probabilities: Llantwit Major 26%, draw 23%, Cardiff Draconians 52%.
How many goals are expected in Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?
The model expects 3.55 goals (Llantwit Major 1.45 · Cardiff Draconians 2.1), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Llantwit Major vs Cardiff Draconians?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.