Football · Wales Championship South · 11/09, 20:30

Prediction: Newport City FC vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Team pages: Newport City FC · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Newport City FC1.92

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1.48

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Newport City FC Draw Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Newport City FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWLL

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDDLLWWD

Head-to-head

Newport City FC 0–1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (4 last)

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC1-0Newport City FC
Newport City FC1-1Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Newport City FC1-2Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC2-1Newport City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newport City FC 1427 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1498

	Newport City FC	Draw	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (rating 1427 vs 1498).
H2H favours Trethomas Bluebirds AFC: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newport City FC	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.4	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:24 +4’	1.90	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newport City FC 0–1–3 Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	1-0 HT 0-0	Newport City FC
10/10/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
03/01/25 Wales Championship South	Newport City FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
01/11/24 Wales Championship South	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-1 HT 0-1	Newport City FC

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	5	4	1	0	18	5	13
2	Pontypridd Utd	5	4	1	0	16	10	13
3	Baglan Dragons	7	4	1	2	7	6	13
4	Aberystwyth	5	4	0	1	16	5	12
5	Treowen Stars	6	4	0	2	15	9	12
6	Carmarthen	6	3	1	2	15	14	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	7	2	3	2	14	13	9
8	Ynyshir Albions	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
9	Caerphilly Athletic	6	2	2	2	5	9	8
10	Afan Lido	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
11	Caerau Ely	6	2	1	3	13	17	7
12	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
13	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
14	Pontardawe Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
15	Llanelli Town	7	0	2	5	6	20	2
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newport City FC	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC
Ynyshir Albions	0-1 L	2-2 D
Baglan Dragons	0-1 L	0-0 D
Carmarthen	1-2 L	3-2 W
Llanelli Town	4-1 W	1-1 D
Cardiff Draconians	1-0 W	4-4 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Trethomas Bluebirds AFC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newport City FC

LLWLLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/08	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
15/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
08/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
31/07	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-1	5	6	W
18/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-5	3	0	L
03/04	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
28/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/03	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
14/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	2	3	L

Trethomas Bluebirds AFC

DDDDDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
31/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	3-1	3-2	5	1	W
28/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	3-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
14/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	2-2	2-4	6	3	L
07/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
31/07	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
18/04	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
04/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	4	4	D
28/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-2	2-2	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newport City FC vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newport City FC win (47%). Probabilities: Newport City FC 47%, draw 24%, Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Newport City FC vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Newport City FC 1.92 · Trethomas Bluebirds AFC 1.48), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Newport City FC vs Trethomas Bluebirds AFC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.