Football · Wales Championship South · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth

Team pages: Baglan Dragons · Aberystwyth

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Baglan Dragons0.89

Aberystwyth1.48

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Baglan Dragons Draw Aberystwyth

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Baglan Dragons 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLLWD

Aberystwyth 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWDWL

Head-to-head

Baglan Dragons 0–2 Aberystwyth (2 last)

Baglan Dragons0-1Aberystwyth
Aberystwyth2-1Baglan Dragons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baglan Dragons 1511 · Aberystwyth 1583

	Baglan Dragons	Draw	Aberystwyth
Our model	22%	29%	50%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aberystwyth (rating 1511 vs 1583).
H2H favours Aberystwyth: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baglan Dragons	Aberystwyth
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.70

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +6’	3.75	3.70	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baglan Dragons 0–0–2 Aberystwyth

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Wales Championship South	Baglan Dragons	0-1 HT 0-0	Aberystwyth
09/08/25 Wales Championship South	Aberystwyth	2-1 HT 1-1	Baglan Dragons

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	9	6	3	0	30	11	21
2	Pontypridd Utd	10	6	2	2	24	17	20
3	Aberystwyth	9	6	1	2	22	9	19
4	Caerau Ely	10	6	1	3	22	18	19
5	Baglan Dragons	11	5	2	4	12	12	17
6	Ynyshir Albions	9	4	4	1	15	9	16
7	Carmarthen	10	4	3	3	22	21	15
8	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	10	3	4	3	20	18	13
9	Treowen Stars	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
10	Afan Lido	11	3	3	5	18	22	12
11	Caerphilly Athletic	10	3	2	5	12	19	11
12	Pontardawe Town	9	3	1	5	15	17	10
13	Cardiff Draconians	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
14	Newport City FC	8	2	2	4	12	9	8
15	Llantwit Major	9	2	2	5	8	21	8
16	Llanelli Town	11	0	2	9	9	33	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baglan Dragons	Aberystwyth
Pontypridd Utd	1-1 D	3-1 W
Llanelli Town	2-1 W	4-0 W
Afan Lido	2-1 W	5-2 W
Caerphilly Athletic	0-1 L	3-2 W
Caerau Ely	3-1 W	0-1 L
Llantwit Major	1-0 W	5-1 W
Pure Swansea	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aberystwyth (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baglan Dragons

LWWWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
02/10	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	0-1	2-1	14	5	W
25/09	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/09	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
15/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-2	0-3	2	1	L

Aberystwyth

DWLWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/10	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
25/09	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
12/09	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
31/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
28/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Llantwit Major Wales Championship South	2-0	5-1	3	3	W
08/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
01/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	5-2	8	8	W
18/04	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberystwyth win (51%). Probabilities: Baglan Dragons 23%, draw 26%, Aberystwyth 51%.

How many goals are expected in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Baglan Dragons 0.89 · Aberystwyth 1.48), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.