Football · Wales Championship South · 28/08, 19:45

Prediction: Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians

Team pages: Treowen Stars · Cardiff Draconians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

Treowen Stars2.04

Cardiff Draconians1.92

1X2

41% 23% 36%

Treowen Stars Draw Cardiff Draconians

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Treowen Stars 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLWWW

Cardiff Draconians 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWLDLW

Head-to-head

Treowen Stars 1–1 Cardiff Draconians (2 last)

Treowen Stars1-0Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians4-3Treowen Stars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Treowen Stars 1518 · Cardiff Draconians 1481

	Treowen Stars	Draw	Cardiff Draconians
Our model	41%	22%	36%
Market	41%	23%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Treowen Stars	Cardiff Draconians
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.2	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.6 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.90

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +3’	2.20	3.90	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Treowen Stars 1–0–1 Cardiff Draconians

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Wales Championship South	Treowen Stars	1-0 HT 0-0	Cardiff Draconians
08/11/25 Wales Championship South	Cardiff Draconians	4-3 HT 1-2	Treowen Stars

Standings · Wales Championship South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	4	4	0	0	14	1	12
2	Pontypridd Utd	4	4	0	0	12	6	12
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
4	Carmarthen	4	3	0	1	11	9	9
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
6	Aberystwyth	3	2	0	1	11	5	6
7	Newport City FC	4	2	0	2	9	4	6
8	Afan Lido	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Ynyshir Albions	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
11	Caerau Ely	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
13	Pontardawe Town	4	1	0	3	5	8	3
14	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
15	Llanelli Town	4	0	1	3	4	12	1
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Treowen Stars	Cardiff Draconians
Caerphilly Athletic	3-0 W	0-0 D
Pontypridd Utd	2-3 L	1-4 L
Trefelin BGC	0-6 L	0-4 L
Afan Lido	0-1 L	4-1 W
Newport City FC	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Treowen Stars (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Treowen Stars

WWLLLWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-1	4-2	6	0	W
15/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
01/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
18/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	4-1	4	5	W
03/04	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-3	0-6	2	1	L
28/03	Ammanford AFC Wales Championship South	0-1	1-5	4	7	L
23/03	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
20/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
17/03	Baglan Dragons Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	6	6	W

Cardiff Draconians

LWLDDWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Llanelli Town Wales Championship South	3-1	4-2	5	7	W
15/08	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
07/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/08	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
18/04	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	5	W
11/04	Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
04/04	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-2	4-4	3	4	D
28/03	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/03	Ynyshir Albions Wales Championship South	1-0	4-1	4	3	W
21/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	0-2	0-4	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Treowen Stars win (41%). Probabilities: Treowen Stars 41%, draw 23%, Cardiff Draconians 36%.

How many goals are expected in Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model expects 3.96 goals (Treowen Stars 2.04 · Cardiff Draconians 1.92), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Treowen Stars vs Cardiff Draconians?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.