Football · Wales Championship South · 05/09, 15:30

Prediction: Ynyshir Albions vs Pontypridd Utd

Team pages: Ynyshir Albions · Pontypridd Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Ynyshir Albions1.26

Pontypridd Utd1.57

1X2

30% 25% 44%

Ynyshir Albions Draw Pontypridd Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ynyshir Albions 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWDLWD

Pontypridd Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Ynyshir Albions 1–1 Pontypridd Utd (2 last)

Ynyshir Albions1-3Pontypridd Utd
Pontypridd Utd2-3Ynyshir Albions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ynyshir Albions 1482 · Pontypridd Utd 1560

	Ynyshir Albions	Draw	Pontypridd Utd
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pontypridd Utd (rating 1482 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ynyshir Albions	Pontypridd Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	2.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:10 +10’	2.88	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ynyshir Albions 1–0–1 Pontypridd Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Wales Championship South	Ynyshir Albions	1-3 HT 1-1	Pontypridd Utd
08/08/25 Wales Championship South	Pontypridd Utd	2-3 HT 2-1	Ynyshir Albions

Standings · Wales Championship South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pure Swansea	5	4	1	0	18	5	13
2	Pontypridd Utd	5	4	1	0	16	10	13
3	Aberystwyth	5	4	0	1	16	5	12
4	Carmarthen	6	3	1	2	15	14	10
5	Baglan Dragons	6	3	1	2	5	5	10
6	Treowen Stars	5	3	0	2	13	9	9
7	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	6	2	2	2	12	11	8
8	Ynyshir Albions	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
9	Afan Lido	6	2	1	3	11	13	7
10	Caerau Ely	6	2	1	3	13	17	7
11	Caerphilly Athletic	5	2	1	2	3	7	7
12	Newport City FC	5	2	0	3	9	5	6
13	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4
14	Pontardawe Town	5	1	0	4	5	9	3
15	Llanelli Town	6	0	2	4	6	18	2
16	Llantwit Major	4	0	0	4	1	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ynyshir Albions	Pontypridd Utd
Caerau Ely	1-1 D	0-0 D
Cardiff Draconians	1-0 W	4-1 W
Trethomas Bluebirds AFC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Carmarthen	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pontypridd Utd (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ynyshir Albions

DLDLDWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Afan Lido Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/08	Newport City FC Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Caerphilly Athletic Wales Championship South	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
07/08	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
01/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
18/04	Aberystwyth Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
28/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
24/03	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	0-1	1-4	3	3	L
21/03	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Pontypridd Utd

LLWDDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Pure Swansea Wales Championship South	0-1	4-4	–	–	D
21/08	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	2-0	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
07/08	Pontardawe Town Wales Championship South	1-2	3-2	9	3	W
01/08	Treowen Stars Wales Championship South	2-0	3-2	6	4	W
18/04	Caerau Ely Wales Championship South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
11/04	Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
04/04	Carmarthen Wales Championship South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
27/03	Trefelin BGC Wales Championship South	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
20/03	Trethomas Bluebirds AFC Wales Championship South	1-1	2-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ynyshir Albions vs Pontypridd Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pontypridd Utd win (44%). Probabilities: Ynyshir Albions 30%, draw 25%, Pontypridd Utd 44%.

How many goals are expected in Ynyshir Albions vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Ynyshir Albions 1.26 · Pontypridd Utd 1.57), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ynyshir Albions vs Pontypridd Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.