Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: SV Donau vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen

Team pages: SV Donau · FC Marchfeld Donauauen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

SV Donau1.96

FC Marchfeld Donauauen1.96

1X2

39% 22% 39%

SV Donau Draw FC Marchfeld Donauauen

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

SV Donau 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDLDL

FC Marchfeld Donauauen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDLWL

Head-to-head

SV Donau 0–2–1 FC Marchfeld Donauauen (3 last)

SV Donau3-3FC Marchfeld Donauauen
FC Marchfeld Donauauen1-1SV Donau
FC Marchfeld Donauauen4-2SV Donau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SV Donau 1421 · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1526

	SV Donau	Draw	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Our model	39%	22%	39%
Market	39%	21%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Marchfeld Donauauen (rating 1421 vs 1526).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SV Donau	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3.3	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.51 ★
X	4.20 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	2.25 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 15.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:45 +9’	2.25	4.20	2.25
10:12 +9’	2.63▲	4.50▲	1.95▼
08:02 +5’	3.00▲	4.75▲	1.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:07	3.51	4.05	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SV Donau 0–2–1 FC Marchfeld Donauauen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Austria Regionalliga Ost	SV Donau	3-3 HT 0-2	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
22/08/25 Austria Regionalliga Ost	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	1-1 HT 1-0	SV Donau
09/02/24 Europe Friendlies	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	4-2 HT 0-0	SV Donau

Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wiener Sportclub	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
2	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
3	Oberwart	3	2	0	1	7	4	6
4	SV Gloggnitz	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
5	SR Fach-Donaufeld	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
6	Parndorf	3	1	2	0	8	3	5
7	SV Leobendorf	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
8	SV Horn	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
9	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	2	1	0	1	5	1	3
10	Favoritner AC	3	1	0	2	1	3	3
11	Kremser SC	3	0	2	1	3	5	2
12	FCM Traiskirchen	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	SV Donau	2	0	1	1	2	7	1
14	SC Wiener Viktoria	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
15	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
16	SV Wienerberg	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SV Donau	FC Marchfeld Donauauen
Parndorf	1-6 L	1-2 L
Kremser SC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Rapid Vienna II	1-6 L	2-2 D
SC Wiener Viktoria	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Marchfeld Donauauen (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SV Donau

LLLLLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-3	1-6	2	4	L
31/07	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/07	Hellas Kagran Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
26/07	St Polten II Europe Friendlies	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
21/07	Simmeringer SC Europe Friendlies	2-0	5-0	12	1	W
26/06	Rapid Vienna II Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-6	2	0	L
03/06	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
29/05	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	1-5	2	7	L
22/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
15/05	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-3	9	10	L

FC Marchfeld Donauauen

WWLWWDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
01/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	4-0	5-0	2	3	W
13/07	Widzew Lodz Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-4	3	2	L
10/07	Rapid Vienna II Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-2	7	0	D
03/07	SC Kalsdorf Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
26/06	SC Weiz Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
03/06	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/05	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
22/05	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
16/05	SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	3-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SV Donau vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SV Donau win (39%). Probabilities: SV Donau 39%, draw 22%, FC Marchfeld Donauauen 39%.

How many goals are expected in SV Donau vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen?

The model expects 3.93 goals (SV Donau 1.96 · FC Marchfeld Donauauen 1.96), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SV Donau vs FC Marchfeld Donauauen?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.