Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 15:00

Prediction: KTS Weszlo vs Wisla Plock II

Team pages: KTS Weszlo · Wisla Plock II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

KTS Weszlo1.78

Wisla Plock II1.24

1X2

50% 24% 26%

KTS Weszlo Draw Wisla Plock II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KTS Weszlo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Wisla Plock II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KTS Weszlo 1529 · Wisla Plock II 1499

	KTS Weszlo	Draw	Wisla Plock II
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KTS Weszlo	Wisla Plock II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.80

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +4’	1.80	3.80	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KTS Weszlo	Wisla Plock II
Pelikan Lowicz	1-0 W	2-1 W
Warta Sieradz	0-1 L	1-2 L
Wigry Suwalki	1-4 L	0-1 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	3-2 W	2-3 L
Widzew Lodz II	2-0 W	2-0 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-0 W	1-4 L
Zabkovia Zabki	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: KTS Weszlo (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KTS Weszlo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
24/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
18/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
11/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
26/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
05/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Wisla Plock II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	4	2	L
31/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
24/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	5	7	D
17/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
03/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
25/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
12/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KTS Weszlo vs Wisla Plock II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KTS Weszlo win (50%). Probabilities: KTS Weszlo 50%, draw 24%, Wisla Plock II 26%.

How many goals are expected in KTS Weszlo vs Wisla Plock II?

The model expects 3.02 goals (KTS Weszlo 1.78 · Wisla Plock II 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KTS Weszlo vs Wisla Plock II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.