Football · Austria League 1 Women · 27/09, 15:30

Prediction: SK Sturm Graz (W) vs FK Austria Vienna (W)

Team pages: SK Sturm Graz (W) · FK Austria Vienna (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

SK Sturm Graz (W)1.12

FK Austria Vienna (W)1.95

1X2

21% 24% 56%

SK Sturm Graz (W) Draw FK Austria Vienna (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Sturm Graz (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWDWWW

FK Austria Vienna (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLWWWW

Head-to-head

SK Sturm Graz (W) 1–5 FK Austria Vienna (W) (6 last)

SK Sturm Graz (W)1-2FK Austria Vienna (W)
FK Austria Vienna (W)3-1SK Sturm Graz (W)
FK Austria Vienna (W)2-0SK Sturm Graz (W)
FK Austria Vienna (W)2-0SK Sturm Graz (W)
SK Sturm Graz (W)0-1FK Austria Vienna (W)
FK Austria Vienna (W)0-1SK Sturm Graz (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Sturm Graz (W) 1546 · FK Austria Vienna (W) 1583

	SK Sturm Graz (W)	Draw	FK Austria Vienna (W)
Our model	20%	24%	56%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Austria Vienna (W): 5-0-1.
High corners: 14.3 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Sturm Graz (W)	FK Austria Vienna (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.1	2.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.2	2.9 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:16 +20’	4.33	3.80	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Sturm Graz (W) 1–0–5 FK Austria Vienna (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Austria League 1 Women	SK Sturm Graz (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Austria Vienna (W)
09/05/26 Austria League 1 Women	FK Austria Vienna (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	SK Sturm Graz (W)
04/04/26 Austria Cup Women	FK Austria Vienna (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	SK Sturm Graz (W)
06/12/25 Austria League 1 Women	FK Austria Vienna (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	SK Sturm Graz (W)
14/09/25 Austria League 1 Women	SK Sturm Graz (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Austria Vienna (W)
03/05/25 Austria League 1 Women	FK Austria Vienna (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	SK Sturm Graz (W)

Standings · Austria League 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Sturm Graz (W)	7	6	1	0	20	4	19
2	SKN St Polten (W)	6	6	0	0	21	2	18
3	FK Austria Vienna (W)	6	4	1	1	17	2	13
4	SCR Altach (W)	6	3	1	2	12	12	10
5	First Vienna FC 1894 (W)	7	1	4	2	9	14	7
6	FC Salzburg (W)	7	2	1	4	5	14	7
7	Rapid Vienna (W)	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
8	LASK Linz (W)	7	1	2	4	6	12	5
9	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W)	7	1	1	5	4	14	4
10	FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W)	7	0	2	5	5	23	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Sturm Graz (W)	FK Austria Vienna (W)
Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W)	4-0 W	2-0 W
FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W)	3-1 W	5-0 W
FC Salzburg (W)	2-0 W	7-0 W
LASK Linz (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
SKN St Polten (W)	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Austria Vienna (W) (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Sturm Graz (W)

LLDWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Rapid Vienna (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	9	0	W
13/09	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W) Austria League 1 Women	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
21/08	First Vienna FC 1894 (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	1-1	12	3	D
16/08	FC Salzburg (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
07/08	LASK Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
01/08	SCR Altach (W) Austria League 1 Women	3-0	6-2	7	1	W
29/05	FC Salzburg (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/05	SKN St Polten (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	FK Austria Vienna (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

FK Austria Vienna (W)

DWWDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kleinmunchen/Blau-Weiss Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
13/09	FC Sudburgenland/TSV Hartberg (W) Austria League 1 Women	2-0	5-0	8	1	W
21/08	FC Salzburg (W) Austria League 1 Women	5-0	7-0	–	–	W
14/08	LASK Linz (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
01/08	SKN St Polten (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
30/05	SKN St Polten (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
23/05	FC Salzburg (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	0-0	14	2	D
17/05	SK Sturm Graz (W) Austria League 1 Women	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	SK Sturm Graz (W) Austria League 1 Women	2-0	3-1	5	0	W
03/05	FC Salzburg (W) Austria League 1 Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Sturm Graz (W) vs FK Austria Vienna (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Austria Vienna (W) win (56%). Probabilities: SK Sturm Graz (W) 21%, draw 24%, FK Austria Vienna (W) 56%.

How many goals are expected in SK Sturm Graz (W) vs FK Austria Vienna (W)?

The model expects 3.06 goals (SK Sturm Graz (W) 1.12 · FK Austria Vienna (W) 1.95), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz (W) vs FK Austria Vienna (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.