Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Zabkovia Zabki vs Polonia Lidzbark

Team pages: Zabkovia Zabki · Polonia Lidzbark

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Zabkovia Zabki2.07

Polonia Lidzbark1.42

1X2

52% 23% 26%

Zabkovia Zabki Draw Polonia Lidzbark

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zabkovia Zabki 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWDDWL

Polonia Lidzbark 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWLWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zabkovia Zabki 1521 · Polonia Lidzbark 1517

	Zabkovia Zabki	Draw	Polonia Lidzbark
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zabkovia Zabki	Polonia Lidzbark
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.9	1.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +19’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zabkovia Zabki	Polonia Lidzbark
CK Troszyn	1-1 D	4-2 W
LKS Lodz II	3-0 W	3-0 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-2 D	1-2 L
Mlawianka Mlawa	3-4 L	2-3 L
LKS Lomza	2-0 W	3-2 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	4-2 W	2-1 W
KTS Weszlo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zabkovia Zabki

LWWLDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
31/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	11	W
24/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	8	7	D
18/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	9	5	W
10/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-3	3-4	6	5	L
18/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L

Polonia Lidzbark

WLLDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	2-0	4-2	3	6	W
30/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
17/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
10/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
06/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zabkovia Zabki vs Polonia Lidzbark?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zabkovia Zabki win (52%). Probabilities: Zabkovia Zabki 52%, draw 23%, Polonia Lidzbark 26%.

How many goals are expected in Zabkovia Zabki vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Zabkovia Zabki 2.07 · Polonia Lidzbark 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zabkovia Zabki vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.