Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag

Team pages: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki · Olimpia Elblag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.89

Olimpia Elblag1.16

1X2

54% 23% 23%

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Draw Olimpia Elblag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWWLW

Olimpia Elblag 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDDLW

Head-to-head

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 0–1–1 Olimpia Elblag (2 last)

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki0-1Olimpia Elblag
Olimpia Elblag1-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1527 · Olimpia Elblag 1512

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Draw	Olimpia Elblag
Our model	53%	24%	22%
Market	54%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Olimpia Elblag
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	1.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +43’	1.65	4.00	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 0–1–1 Olimpia Elblag

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-1 HT 0-0	Olimpia Elblag
13/09/25 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Elblag	1-1 HT 0-1	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Olimpia Elblag
Zabkovia Zabki	0-2 L	2-0 W
CK Troszyn	3-0 W	0-2 L
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	3-1 W	0-0 D
LKS Lodz II	2-7 L	1-1 D
Mlawianka Mlawa	4-2 W	2-1 W
LKS Lomza	4-0 W	2-0 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	1-2 L
KTS Weszlo	0-1 L	1-2 L
Pelikan Lowicz	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

LLWWWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	5	2	W
31/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
24/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
18/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-7	7	1	L
03/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
25/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
18/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L

Olimpia Elblag

LWLLWWDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
31/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
26/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
19/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki win (54%). Probabilities: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 54%, draw 23%, Olimpia Elblag 23%.

How many goals are expected in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model expects 3.05 goals (MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.89 · Olimpia Elblag 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Olimpia Elblag?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.