Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: LKS Lomza vs Warta Sieradz

Team pages: LKS Lomza · Warta Sieradz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

LKS Lomza1.08

Warta Sieradz1.96

1X2

20% 22% 57%

LKS Lomza Draw Warta Sieradz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lomza 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLDLL

Warta Sieradz 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWWDWW

Head-to-head

LKS Lomza 2–2–2 Warta Sieradz (6 last)

LKS Lomza1-1Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz1-2LKS Lomza
Warta Sieradz1-0LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza2-4Warta Sieradz
LKS Lomza2-0Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz2-2LKS Lomza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lomza 1398 · Warta Sieradz 1556

	LKS Lomza	Draw	Warta Sieradz
Our model	20%	24%	57%
Market	21%	21%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1398 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lomza	Warta Sieradz
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.2	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.20

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +24’	4.33	4.20	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lomza 2–2–2 Warta Sieradz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	1-1 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-2 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
18/04/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-0 HT 1-0	LKS Lomza
21/09/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-4 HT 0-2	Warta Sieradz
23/03/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	2-0 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
27/08/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-2 HT 2-0	LKS Lomza

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lomza	Warta Sieradz
Wigry Suwalki	0-1 L	1-3 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-3 L	1-1 D
Widzew Lodz II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Olimpia Zambrow	0-2 L	2-2 D
Polonia Lidzbark	2-3 L	2-1 W
Olimpia Elblag	0-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lomza

LDLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
25/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	7	1	D
17/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
03/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
25/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
18/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	2	L

Warta Sieradz

WWDDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
31/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
17/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
09/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lomza vs Warta Sieradz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Warta Sieradz win (57%). Probabilities: LKS Lomza 20%, draw 22%, Warta Sieradz 57%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lomza vs Warta Sieradz?

The model expects 3.04 goals (LKS Lomza 1.08 · Warta Sieradz 1.96), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Warta Sieradz?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.