Football · Denmark Series Group 3 · 05/09, 13:30

Prediction: Marienlyst vs Tarup-Paarup

Team pages: Marienlyst · Tarup-Paarup

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Marienlyst2.16

Tarup-Paarup1.36

1X2

55% 22% 23%

Marienlyst Draw Tarup-Paarup

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Marienlyst 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDLWL

Tarup-Paarup 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Marienlyst 5–1–0 Tarup-Paarup (6 last)

Tarup-Paarup1-4Marienlyst
Marienlyst2-0Tarup-Paarup
Marienlyst2-2Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup1-2Marienlyst
Tarup-Paarup2-5Marienlyst
Marienlyst2-0Tarup-Paarup

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marienlyst (rating 1511 vs 1446).
H2H favours Marienlyst: 5-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marienlyst	Tarup-Paarup
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	– / –	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	//%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / –	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	– / –	5 / 1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.89

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:36

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.83
X	4.86 → 4.86	Pinn 4.86
2	2.69 → 2.69	Pinn 2.69

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:35	1.83	4.86	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marienlyst 5–1–0 Tarup-Paarup

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Denmark Series Group 3	Tarup-Paarup	1-4	Marienlyst
20/09/25 Denmark Series Group 3	Marienlyst	2-0	Tarup-Paarup
15/03/25 Denmark Series Group 3	Marienlyst	2-2	Tarup-Paarup
14/09/24 Denmark Series Group 3	Tarup-Paarup	1-2 HT 0-1	Marienlyst
04/11/23 Denmark Series Group 3	Tarup-Paarup	2-5	Marienlyst
02/09/23 Denmark Series Group 3	Marienlyst	2-0	Tarup-Paarup

Standings · Denmark Series Group 3 · Danmarksserien 26/27, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oure FA	5	4	1	0	14	7	13
2	Aarhus Fremad 2	4	3	1	0	14	7	10
3	Tarup-Paarup	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
4	B 1913	5	2	1	2	11	11	7
5	OKS	4	2	0	2	8	10	6
6	Kolding BK	4	1	1	2	10	12	4
7	Marienlyst	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
8	Odder IGF	4	1	0	3	10	9	3
9	Esbjerg II	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
10	Horsens fS	4	0	1	3	7	15	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marienlyst	Tarup-Paarup
OKS	0-3 L	2-2 D
Odder IGF	4-2 W	2-1 W
B 1913	2-4 L	2-2 D
Esbjerg II	1-1 D	3-0 W
ØB	2-1 W	3-0 W
Horsens fS	7-0 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tarup-Paarup (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marienlyst

WLWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	OKS Denmark Series Group 3	–	0-3	–	–	L
22/08	Odder IGF Denmark Series Group 3	–	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	B 1913 Denmark Series Group 3	–	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Esbjerg II Denmark Series Group 3	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/03	ØB Denmark Series Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
21/03	Esbjerg II Denmark Series Group 3	–	2-0	–	–	W
14/03	Tarup-Paarup Denmark Series Group 3	–	4-1	–	–	W
07/03	Horsens fS Denmark Series Group 3	–	7-0	–	–	W
08/11	Oure FA Denmark Series Group 3	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/11	Ringkøbing IF Denmark Series Group 3	–	1-0	–	–	W

Tarup-Paarup

LWLLDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Odder IGF Denmark Series Group 3	–	2-1	–	–	W
21/08	B 1913 Denmark Series Group 3	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
15/08	Esbjerg II Denmark Series Group 3	–	3-0	–	–	W
09/08	Kolding BK Denmark Series Group 3	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/03	Hedensted IF Denmark Series Group 3	–	0-0	–	–	D
21/03	OKS Denmark Series Group 3	–	2-2	–	–	D
14/03	Marienlyst Denmark Series Group 3	–	1-4	–	–	L
08/03	Esbjerg II Denmark Series Group 3	–	1-3	–	–	L
08/11	ØB Denmark Series Group 3	–	3-0	–	–	W
01/11	Horsens fS Denmark Series Group 3	–	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marienlyst vs Tarup-Paarup?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Marienlyst win (55%). Probabilities: Marienlyst 55%, draw 22%, Tarup-Paarup 23%.

How many goals are expected in Marienlyst vs Tarup-Paarup?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Marienlyst 2.16 · Tarup-Paarup 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Marienlyst vs Tarup-Paarup?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.