Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Warta Gorzow vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Team pages: Warta Gorzow · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Warta Gorzow1.2

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1.74

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Warta Gorzow Draw Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Gorzow 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWLDDLLLLL

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Warta Gorzow 2–2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (6 last)

Warta Gorzow3-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora2-1Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow3-2Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora2-1Warta Gorzow
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora1-1Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow1-1Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Gorzow 1441 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1495

	Warta Gorzow	Draw	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (rating 1441 vs 1495).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Gorzow	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.80

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +55’	3.40	3.80	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Gorzow 2–2–2 Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	3-1 HT 1-0	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
31/08/25 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-1 HT 1-0	Warta Gorzow
31/05/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	3-2 HT 0-2	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
09/11/24 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-1 HT 1-1	Warta Gorzow
14/05/24 Poland III Liga	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	1-1 HT 0-0	Warta Gorzow
21/10/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-1 HT 1-1	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Gorzow	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora
Miedz Legnica II	0-6 L	1-2 L
MKS Kluczbork	0-2 L	2-2 D
Rakow Czestochowa II	2-3 L	3-1 W
Polonia Nysa	0-1 L	2-2 D
Sparta Katowice	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sleza Wroclaw	1-1 D	0-2 L
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	1-4 L	2-0 W
Stal Brzeg	1-0 W	0-1 L
KS Stilon Gorzow	1-1 D	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Karkonosze Jelenia Gora (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Gorzow

DWLDDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
30/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-6	–	–	L
24/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
10/10	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	10	7	L
03/10	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
12/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Karkonosze Jelenia Gora

LWLWLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
16/10	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	1	6	D
10/10	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	3	L
26/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
19/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	10	2	W
05/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Gorzow vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Karkonosze Jelenia Gora win (49%). Probabilities: Warta Gorzow 26%, draw 25%, Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 49%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Gorzow vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Warta Gorzow 1.2 · Karkonosze Jelenia Gora 1.74), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Karkonosze Jelenia Gora?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.