Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 21/11, 13:00

Prediction: Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel

Team pages: Wolfsburg · Holstein Kiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Wolfsburg2.08

Holstein Kiel1.21

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Wolfsburg Draw Holstein Kiel

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Wolfsburg 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWDWL

Holstein Kiel 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Wolfsburg 2–2–2 Holstein Kiel (6 last)

Wolfsburg0-1Holstein Kiel
Wolfsburg2-2Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel0-2Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg0-1Holstein Kiel
Wolfsburg1-1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel0-1Wolfsburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wolfsburg 1552 · Holstein Kiel 1463

	Wolfsburg	Draw	Holstein Kiel
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wolfsburg (rating 1552 vs 1463).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wolfsburg	Holstein Kiel
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.6	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.71
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.41 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +9’	1.65	4.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +5’	1.71	4.41	4.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wolfsburg 2–2–2 Holstein Kiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/10/25 Germany DFB Pokal	Wolfsburg	0-1 HT 0-1	Holstein Kiel
24/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Wolfsburg	2-2 HT 0-1	Holstein Kiel
31/08/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Holstein Kiel	0-2 HT 0-2	Wolfsburg
14/07/21 Europe Friendlies	Wolfsburg	0-1 HT 0-0	Holstein Kiel
10/10/19 Europe Friendlies	Wolfsburg	1-1 HT 0-1	Holstein Kiel
21/05/18 Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs	Holstein Kiel	0-1 HT 0-0	Wolfsburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	11	10	1	0	25	9	31
2	Nurnberg	11	7	3	1	26	13	24
3	Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	21
4	Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	20
5	Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	26	16	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	17
7	Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	16
8	Bochum	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
9	St Pauli	11	2	6	3	13	16	12
10	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	13	19	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	12	18	12
12	Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	16	18	11
14	VfL Osnabruck	11	3	2	6	14	18	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	15	24	11
17	Darmstadt	11	2	3	6	9	21	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	11	14	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wolfsburg	Holstein Kiel
Hertha Berlin	1-2 L	0-0 D
VfL Osnabruck	2-0 W	1-1 D
Heidenheim	3-1 W	0-1 L
Nurnberg	4-4 D	2-2 D
St Pauli	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wolfsburg

WWDLWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
31/10	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
23/10	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
17/10	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	2-1	3-1	8	5	W
10/10	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	4-4	6	8	D
18/09	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	2-1	5-1	8	5	W
12/09	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	3-1	4-4	4	7	D
29/08	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	3-2	5-2	8	1	W
16/08	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Holstein Kiel

DLDLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
01/11	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
25/10	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-0	5	6	W
16/10	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
09/10	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/09	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
13/09	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
05/09	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	10	7	D
30/08	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	2-2	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wolfsburg win (56%). Probabilities: Wolfsburg 56%, draw 23%, Holstein Kiel 21%.

How many goals are expected in Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Wolfsburg 2.08 · Holstein Kiel 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.