Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 15/11, 15:00

Prediction: Cercle Brugge Reserves vs KVC Houtvenne

Team pages: Cercle Brugge Reserves · KVC Houtvenne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Cercle Brugge Reserves1.49

KVC Houtvenne1.8

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Cercle Brugge Reserves Draw KVC Houtvenne

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cercle Brugge Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDLDL

KVC Houtvenne 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDLL

Head-to-head

Cercle Brugge Reserves 1–1–0 KVC Houtvenne (2 last)

KVC Houtvenne1-1Cercle Brugge Reserves
Cercle Brugge Reserves1-0KVC Houtvenne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1445 · KVC Houtvenne 1504

	Cercle Brugge Reserves	Draw	KVC Houtvenne
Our model	31%	25%	44%
Market	32%	23%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KVC Houtvenne (rating 1445 vs 1504).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cercle Brugge Reserves	KVC Houtvenne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.6	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.13 ★
X	3.70 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.20 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.02

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +3’	2.55	3.70	2.20
02:03 +7’	2.80▲	3.80▲	2.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +6’	3.07	3.61	1.99
19:12 +10’	3.13▲	3.70▲	2.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1–1–0 KVC Houtvenne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	KVC Houtvenne	1-1 HT 1-1	Cercle Brugge Reserves
16/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	KVC Houtvenne

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	12	8	1	3	20	11	25
2	Union Rochefortoise	12	6	4	2	23	11	22
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	12	6	3	3	22	15	21
4	Tubize	12	6	3	3	18	13	21
5	RAEC Mons	12	6	2	4	28	20	20
6	RWD Molenbeek	12	6	2	4	16	14	20
7	ROC Charleroi	12	4	4	4	15	23	16
8	Standard Liege II	12	4	2	6	14	12	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	12	3	5	4	13	14	14
10	RCS Onhaye	12	4	1	7	13	22	13
11	RSC Habay	12	3	3	6	10	15	12
12	FC Flenu	12	0	2	10	11	33	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cercle Brugge Reserves	KVC Houtvenne
RFC Mandel Utd	1-3 L	2-1 W
Hoogstraten VV	1-4 L	0-3 L
KVV Thes Sport	2-2 D	1-2 L
K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	2-1 W	1-0 W
KSK Heist	1-3 L	0-4 L
Dessel Sport	1-3 L	5-0 W
Royal Knokke	2-1 W	2-0 W
KFC Merelbeke	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KVC Houtvenne (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cercle Brugge Reserves

LWLLLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-3	5	6	L
01/11	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	3-3	7	4	D
25/10	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
17/10	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
11/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
27/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
19/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/09	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-3	4	3	L

KVC Houtvenne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
31/10	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
24/10	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
17/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
10/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
03/10	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
30/09	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
20/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
11/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	2	4	W
06/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cercle Brugge Reserves vs KVC Houtvenne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KVC Houtvenne win (44%). Probabilities: Cercle Brugge Reserves 32%, draw 24%, KVC Houtvenne 44%.

How many goals are expected in Cercle Brugge Reserves vs KVC Houtvenne?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Cercle Brugge Reserves 1.49 · KVC Houtvenne 1.8), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge Reserves vs KVC Houtvenne?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.