Prediction: Holywell Town vs Penybont
Team pages: Holywell Town · Penybont
- Penybont2-1Holywell Town
| Holywell Town | Draw | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| Market | 10% | 15% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penybont (rating 1399 vs 1581).
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Holywell Town | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 3.2 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Holywell Town 0–0–1 Penybont
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/23 Wales Cup | Penybont | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Holywell Town |
Standings · Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.N.S. | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 6 | 37 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 23 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MU | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 33 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town Utd | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin BGC | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 44 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Holywell Town | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Ammanford AFC | 1-2 L | 5-1 W |
| Briton Ferry | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Colwyn Bay | 0-5 L | 1-0 W |
| Cambrian United | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Trefelin BGC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Airbus UK | 2-6 L | 2-1 W |
| Barry Town | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 5 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Penybont (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Holywell Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
0-5 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 11/09 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 31/08 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
1-3 | 2-6 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 28/08 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
1-3 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 21/08 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Penybont
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Barry Town Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/10 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/09 | Airbus UK Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 15/09 | Briton Ferry Wales Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Cambrian United Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 28/08 | Flint Town Utd Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 21/08 | Llandudno Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Holywell Town vs Penybont?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Penybont win (75%). Probabilities: Holywell Town 9%, draw 15%, Penybont 75%.
How many goals are expected in Holywell Town vs Penybont?
The model expects 3.67 goals (Holywell Town 0.92 · Penybont 2.76), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Holywell Town vs Penybont?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.