Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 21/11, 20:30

Prediction: St Pauli vs Bochum

Team pages: St Pauli · Bochum

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

St Pauli1.46

Bochum1.12

1X2

44% 27% 28%

St Pauli Draw Bochum

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

St Pauli 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWDDLL

Bochum 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLDWW

Head-to-head

St Pauli 0–2–4 Bochum (6 last)

St Pauli0-2Bochum
Bochum1-0St Pauli
St Pauli2-3Bochum
Bochum2-2St Pauli
Bochum2-0St Pauli
St Pauli1-1Bochum

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Pauli 1483 · Bochum 1523

	St Pauli	Draw	Bochum
Our model	44%	29%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bochum (rating 1483 vs 1523).
H2H favours Bochum: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Pauli	Bochum
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.07
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.63
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +4’	2.05	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +8’	2.07	3.63	3.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Pauli 0–2–4 Bochum

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/25 Germany Bundesliga I	St Pauli	0-2 HT 0-1	Bochum
15/01/25 Germany Bundesliga I	Bochum	1-0 HT 0-0	St Pauli
28/01/21 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	2-3 HT 2-2	Bochum
21/09/20 Germany Bundesliga II	Bochum	2-2 HT 1-0	St Pauli
05/06/20 Germany Bundesliga II	Bochum	2-0 HT 1-0	St Pauli
08/11/19 Germany Bundesliga II	St Pauli	1-1 HT 1-1	Bochum

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	11	10	1	0	25	9	31
2	Nurnberg	11	7	3	1	26	13	24
3	Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	21
4	Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	20
5	Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	26	16	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	17
7	Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	16
8	Bochum	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
9	St Pauli	11	2	6	3	13	16	12
10	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	13	19	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	12	18	12
12	Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	16	18	11
14	VfL Osnabruck	11	3	2	6	14	18	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	15	24	11
17	Darmstadt	11	2	3	6	9	21	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	11	14	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Pauli	Bochum
Hannover 96	1-1 D	1-2 L
Karlsruher SC	2-0 W	3-2 W
Cottbus	1-1 D	2-1 W
Wolfsburg	1-0 W	1-1 D
Arminia Bielefeld	2-2 D	0-1 L
Kaiserslautern	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: St Pauli (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Pauli

DLDWDWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-4	7	7	L
01/11	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-3	4	6	L
23/10	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
17/10	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/10	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
20/09	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
12/09	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
04/09	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
30/08	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
14/08	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-2	5	6	D

Bochum

WLWDLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
30/10	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
23/10	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
17/10	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
11/10	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
20/09	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-2	12	5	L
12/09	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
05/09	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	2-1	2-1	4	8	W
28/08	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
14/08	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Pauli vs Bochum?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Pauli win (44%). Probabilities: St Pauli 44%, draw 27%, Bochum 28%.

How many goals are expected in St Pauli vs Bochum?

The model expects 2.58 goals (St Pauli 1.46 · Bochum 1.12), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in St Pauli vs Bochum?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.