Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 20/11, 18:30

Prediction: Darmstadt vs Heidenheim

Team pages: Darmstadt · Heidenheim

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Darmstadt1.26

Heidenheim1.77

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Darmstadt Draw Heidenheim

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Darmstadt 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLDDL

Heidenheim 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Darmstadt 1–1–4 Heidenheim (6 last)

Darmstadt0-1Heidenheim
Heidenheim3-2Darmstadt
Heidenheim1-0Darmstadt
Darmstadt2-2Heidenheim
Darmstadt3-2Heidenheim
Heidenheim2-1Darmstadt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darmstadt 1490 · Heidenheim 1490

	Darmstadt	Draw	Heidenheim
Our model	26%	25%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Heidenheim: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darmstadt	Heidenheim
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.70

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.94 ★
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +124’	3.50	3.70	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +12’	3.61	3.94	1.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darmstadt 1–1–4 Heidenheim

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/24 Germany Bundesliga I	Darmstadt	0-1 HT 0-0	Heidenheim
09/12/23 Germany Bundesliga I	Heidenheim	3-2 HT 1-0	Darmstadt
04/03/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Heidenheim	1-0 HT 0-0	Darmstadt
27/08/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Darmstadt	2-2 HT 1-0	Heidenheim
04/03/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Darmstadt	3-2 HT 0-1	Heidenheim
24/09/21 Germany Bundesliga II	Heidenheim	2-1 HT 1-0	Darmstadt

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	11	10	1	0	25	9	31
2	Nurnberg	11	7	3	1	26	13	24
3	Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	21
4	Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	20
5	Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	26	16	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	17
7	Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	16
8	Bochum	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
9	St Pauli	11	2	6	3	13	16	12
10	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	13	19	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	12	18	12
12	Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	16	18	11
14	VfL Osnabruck	11	3	2	6	14	18	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	15	24	11
17	Darmstadt	11	2	3	6	9	21	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	11	14	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darmstadt	Heidenheim
Karlsruher SC	0-4 L	1-2 L
Cottbus	3-1 W	1-1 D
Wolfsburg	1-5 L	1-3 L
Arminia Bielefeld	2-1 W	2-2 D
Kaiserslautern	0-3 L	0-0 D
Hannover 96	0-1 L	2-2 D
Dynamo Dresden	0-1 L	5-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Heidenheim (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darmstadt

LLLWLWLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
31/10	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/10	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
18/10	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
10/10	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	3-1	7	6	W
18/09	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	1-5	5	5	L
11/09	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
05/09	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
16/08	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Heidenheim

LWWWDDLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
31/10	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
24/10	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	15	4	D
17/10	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	1-3	8	5	L
09/10	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
20/09	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	2-1	2-2	6	7	D
13/09	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
06/09	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
29/08	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	5-3	6	5	W
15/08	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-3	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darmstadt vs Heidenheim?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Heidenheim win (49%). Probabilities: Darmstadt 26%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 49%.

How many goals are expected in Darmstadt vs Heidenheim?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Darmstadt 1.26 · Heidenheim 1.77), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Darmstadt vs Heidenheim?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.