Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 22/11, 13:30

Prediction: Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabruck

Team pages: Karlsruher SC · VfL Osnabruck

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Karlsruher SC1.56

VfL Osnabruck1.34

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Karlsruher SC Draw VfL Osnabruck

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Karlsruher SC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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VfL Osnabruck 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDDLWLL

Head-to-head

Karlsruher SC 3–1–2 VfL Osnabruck (6 last)

Karlsruher SC2-1VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck2-3Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC0-1VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck1-2Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC1-1VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck3-0Karlsruher SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlsruher SC 1453 · VfL Osnabruck 1475

	Karlsruher SC	Draw	VfL Osnabruck
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Karlsruher SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlsruher SC	VfL Osnabruck
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.26
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.97

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:40 +33’	2.20	3.60	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +6’	2.26	3.76	2.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlsruher SC 3–1–2 VfL Osnabruck

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/01/24 Germany Bundesliga II	Karlsruher SC	2-1 HT 1-1	VfL Osnabruck
29/07/23 Germany Bundesliga II	VfL Osnabruck	2-3 HT 1-2	Karlsruher SC
03/04/21 Germany Bundesliga II	Karlsruher SC	0-1 HT 0-0	VfL Osnabruck
05/12/20 Germany Bundesliga II	VfL Osnabruck	1-2 HT 1-0	Karlsruher SC
16/02/20 Germany Bundesliga II	Karlsruher SC	1-1 HT 1-0	VfL Osnabruck
01/09/19 Germany Bundesliga II	VfL Osnabruck	3-0 HT 1-0	Karlsruher SC

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	11	10	1	0	25	9	31
2	Nurnberg	11	7	3	1	26	13	24
3	Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	21
4	Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	20
5	Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	26	16	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	17
7	Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	16
8	Bochum	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
9	St Pauli	11	2	6	3	13	16	12
10	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	13	19	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	12	18	12
12	Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	16	18	11
14	VfL Osnabruck	11	3	2	6	14	18	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	15	24	11
17	Darmstadt	11	2	3	6	9	21	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	11	14	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlsruher SC	VfL Osnabruck
Bochum	2-3 L	1-0 W
Magdeburg	1-6 L	0-3 L
Wolfsburg	2-5 L	0-2 L
Kaiserslautern	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: VfL Osnabruck (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karlsruher SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-3	1	2	L
31/10	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
24/10	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-6	4	3	L
18/10	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
11/10	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
19/09	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
13/09	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
04/09	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
29/08	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	2-3	2-5	10	1	L
15/08	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	11	6	D

VfL Osnabruck

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/10	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
25/10	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
18/10	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
10/10	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
19/09	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
13/09	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-3	4	4	L
06/09	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
28/08	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
15/08	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabruck?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karlsruher SC win (42%). Probabilities: Karlsruher SC 42%, draw 26%, VfL Osnabruck 32%.

How many goals are expected in Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabruck?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Karlsruher SC 1.56 · VfL Osnabruck 1.34), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabruck?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.