Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 20/11, 18:30

Prediction: Arminia Bielefeld vs Magdeburg

Team pages: Arminia Bielefeld · Magdeburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Arminia Bielefeld1.71

Magdeburg1.54

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Arminia Bielefeld Draw Magdeburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Arminia Bielefeld 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWWLWW

Magdeburg 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Arminia Bielefeld 3–1–2 Magdeburg (6 last)

Magdeburg0-2Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld2-0Magdeburg
Magdeburg4-0Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld3-1Magdeburg
Arminia Bielefeld1-3Magdeburg
Magdeburg0-0Arminia Bielefeld

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arminia Bielefeld 1549 · Magdeburg 1533

	Arminia Bielefeld	Draw	Magdeburg
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Arminia Bielefeld: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arminia Bielefeld	Magdeburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.69 ★
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +4’	2.30	3.50	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +11’	2.38	3.63	2.86
10:16 +11’	2.30▼	3.67▲	2.96▲
11:27 +8’	2.29▼	3.71▲	2.95▼
14:49 +3’	2.28▼	3.75▲	2.94▼
16:53 +3’	2.30▲	3.69▼	2.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arminia Bielefeld 3–1–2 Magdeburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	0-2 HT 0-1	Arminia Bielefeld
12/09/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	2-0 HT 0-0	Magdeburg
28/05/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	4-0 HT 2-0	Arminia Bielefeld
13/11/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	3-1 HT 1-0	Magdeburg
17/02/19 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	1-3 HT 0-2	Magdeburg
17/09/18 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	0-0 HT 0-0	Arminia Bielefeld

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	11	10	1	0	25	9	31
2	Nurnberg	11	7	3	1	26	13	24
3	Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	21
4	Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	20
5	Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	26	16	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	17
7	Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	16
8	Bochum	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
9	St Pauli	11	2	6	3	13	16	12
10	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	13	19	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	12	18	12
12	Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	16	18	11
14	VfL Osnabruck	11	3	2	6	14	18	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	15	24	11
17	Darmstadt	11	2	3	6	9	21	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	11	14	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arminia Bielefeld	Magdeburg
Holstein Kiel	2-1 W	2-0 W
Hertha Berlin	0-1 L	1-2 L
VfL Osnabruck	2-1 W	3-0 W
Darmstadt	1-2 L	1-1 D
St Pauli	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Magdeburg (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arminia Bielefeld

WLDLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
30/10	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
24/10	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
18/10	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
11/10	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
20/09	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	2-2	5	7	D
11/09	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
04/09	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
29/08	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-3	1-4	8	2	L
16/08	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	7	4	W

Magdeburg

WWLWDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	4-1	3	7	W
31/10	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
24/10	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	6-1	4	3	W
18/10	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
10/10	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
18/09	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
06/09	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
30/08	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-0	3	9	W
15/08	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arminia Bielefeld vs Magdeburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arminia Bielefeld win (41%). Probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 41%, draw 26%, Magdeburg 33%.

How many goals are expected in Arminia Bielefeld vs Magdeburg?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Arminia Bielefeld 1.71 · Magdeburg 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Magdeburg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.