Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 22/11, 13:30

Prediction: Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin

Team pages: Cottbus · Hertha Berlin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Cottbus1.24

Hertha Berlin2.16

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Cottbus Draw Hertha Berlin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Cottbus 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDLDDLD

Hertha Berlin 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Cottbus 0–1–1 Hertha Berlin (2 last)

Cottbus2-2Hertha Berlin
Cottbus1-5Hertha Berlin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cottbus 1471 · Hertha Berlin 1636

	Cottbus	Draw	Hertha Berlin
Our model	20%	22%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hertha Berlin (rating 1471 vs 1636).
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cottbus	Hertha Berlin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.70
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.66 ★
2	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:57 +16’	4.50	4.20	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +6’	4.70	4.66	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cottbus 0–1–1 Hertha Berlin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Cottbus	2-2 HT 0-2	Hertha Berlin
08/07/22 Europe Friendlies	Cottbus	1-5 HT 0-1	Hertha Berlin

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	11	10	1	0	25	9	31
2	Nurnberg	11	7	3	1	26	13	24
3	Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	21
4	Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	20
5	Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	26	16	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	17
7	Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	16
8	Bochum	11	4	2	5	11	13	14
9	St Pauli	11	2	6	3	13	16	12
10	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	13	19	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	12	18	12
12	Cottbus	11	2	5	4	18	20	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	16	18	11
14	VfL Osnabruck	11	3	2	6	14	18	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	15	24	11
17	Darmstadt	11	2	3	6	9	21	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	11	14	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cottbus	Hertha Berlin
Eintracht Braunschweig	0-0 D	5-3 W
Heidenheim	1-1 D	4-1 W
Wolfsburg	4-4 D	2-1 W
Greuther Furth	3-4 L	2-1 W
Arminia Bielefeld	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hertha Berlin (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cottbus

LLDWDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/10	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
24/10	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/10	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/10	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
20/09	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
13/09	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
05/09	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-3	4-4	8	7	D
29/08	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	3-4	10	4	L
16/08	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-3	10	4	L

Hertha Berlin

WWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-1	10	6	W
31/10	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
24/10	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
16/10	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
11/10	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
19/09	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
13/09	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/09	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
28/08	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	2-2	5-3	12	6	W
15/08	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	4-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hertha Berlin win (58%). Probabilities: Cottbus 20%, draw 22%, Hertha Berlin 58%.

How many goals are expected in Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Cottbus 1.24 · Hertha Berlin 2.16), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cottbus vs Hertha Berlin?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.