Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: CD Badajoz vs Don Benito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

CD Badajoz1.49

Don Benito0.95

1X2

49% 27% 24%

CD Badajoz Draw Don Benito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Badajoz 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

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Don Benito 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CD Badajoz 3–2–1 Don Benito (6 last)

Don Benito1-1CD Badajoz
CD Badajoz0-1Don Benito
CD Badajoz0-0Don Benito
Don Benito1-2CD Badajoz
Don Benito1-3CD Badajoz
CD Badajoz2-0Don Benito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Badajoz 1534 · Don Benito 1541

	CD Badajoz	Draw	Don Benito
Our model	49%	29%	23%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Badajoz: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Badajoz	Don Benito
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	1.1 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +5’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Badajoz 3–2–1 Don Benito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Don Benito	1-1	CD Badajoz
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	CD Badajoz	0-1 HT 0-1	Don Benito
03/08/24 Europe Friendlies	CD Badajoz	0-0 HT 0-0	Don Benito
05/08/21 Europe Friendlies	Don Benito	1-2 HT 0-1	CD Badajoz
24/01/21 Spain Segunda B Group 5	Don Benito	1-3 HT 0-0	CD Badajoz
25/10/20 Spain Segunda B Group 5	CD Badajoz	2-0 HT 0-0	Don Benito

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rec de Huelva	10	6	3	1	21	8	21
2	Don Benito	10	6	2	2	18	13	20
3	Ciudad Lucena	10	5	4	1	17	10	19
4	CD Badajoz	10	4	5	1	10	7	17
5	CD Estepona	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
6	Betis Deportivo	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
7	Xerez CD	10	4	3	3	12	7	15
8	CP Mijas	10	3	6	1	18	14	15
9	Club Atletico Central	10	5	0	5	13	15	15
10	Sevilla Atletico	10	3	5	2	18	16	14
11	Linares Deportivo	10	3	5	2	13	13	14
12	Puente Genil	10	3	3	4	11	10	12
13	Atletico Sanluqueno	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
14	Marbella FC	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
15	Tenerife B	9	3	1	5	11	14	10
16	UD Tamaraceite	10	2	0	8	8	23	6
17	CA Antoniano	10	1	3	6	10	19	6
18	Las Palmas B	10	1	2	7	5	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Badajoz	Don Benito
Ciudad Lucena	1-1 D	2-4 L
Linares Deportivo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Puente Genil	0-0 D	3-2 W
Atletico Sanluqueno	1-0 W	1-0 W
Las Palmas B	0-0 D	3-0 W
Xerez CD	2-1 W	0-0 D
Tenerife B	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Badajoz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ciudad Lucena Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/11	Linares Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
25/10	Puente Genil Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
11/10	Marbella FC Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
04/10	Sevilla Atletico Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
27/09	Las Palmas B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
20/09	Betis Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Xerez CD Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
06/09	Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	2-1	4	6	W

Don Benito

WWDWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Puente Genil Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	3-2	8	4	W
02/11	Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
24/10	Linares Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
18/10	Club Atletico Central Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	4-2	4	4	W
11/10	Ciudad Lucena Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-3	2-4	2	3	L
03/10	CD Estepona Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	1-3	1	4	L
26/09	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
20/09	Xerez CD Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
13/09	Las Palmas B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	3-0	3	6	W
06/09	CA Antoniano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	2-1	0	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Badajoz vs Don Benito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Badajoz win (49%). Probabilities: CD Badajoz 49%, draw 27%, Don Benito 24%.

How many goals are expected in CD Badajoz vs Don Benito?

The model expects 2.45 goals (CD Badajoz 1.49 · Don Benito 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Badajoz vs Don Benito?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.