Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: UD Tamaraceite vs Marbella FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

UD Tamaraceite1.19

Marbella FC1.35

1X2

33% 27% 40%

UD Tamaraceite Draw Marbella FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Tamaraceite 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWLLL

Marbella FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLDLDW

Head-to-head

UD Tamaraceite 2–0 Marbella FC (2 last)

Marbella FC1-3UD Tamaraceite
UD Tamaraceite3-1Marbella FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Tamaraceite 1421 · Marbella FC 1475

	UD Tamaraceite	Draw	Marbella FC
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marbella FC (rating 1421 vs 1475).
H2H favours UD Tamaraceite: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Tamaraceite	Marbella FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +6’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Tamaraceite 2–0–0 Marbella FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/21 Spain Segunda B Group 4	Marbella FC	1-3 HT 0-3	UD Tamaraceite
01/11/20 Spain Segunda B Group 4	UD Tamaraceite	3-1 HT 0-1	Marbella FC

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 4

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rec de Huelva	10	6	3	1	21	8	21
2	Don Benito	10	6	2	2	18	13	20
3	Ciudad Lucena	10	5	4	1	17	10	19
4	CD Badajoz	10	4	5	1	10	7	17
5	CD Estepona	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
6	Betis Deportivo	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
7	Xerez CD	10	4	3	3	12	7	15
8	CP Mijas	10	3	6	1	18	14	15
9	Club Atletico Central	10	5	0	5	13	15	15
10	Sevilla Atletico	10	3	5	2	18	16	14
11	Linares Deportivo	10	3	5	2	13	13	14
12	Puente Genil	10	3	3	4	11	10	12
13	Atletico Sanluqueno	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
14	Marbella FC	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
15	Tenerife B	9	3	1	5	11	14	10
16	UD Tamaraceite	10	2	0	8	8	23	6
17	CA Antoniano	10	1	3	6	10	19	6
18	Las Palmas B	10	1	2	7	5	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Tamaraceite	Marbella FC
CD Estepona	0-5 L	0-0 D
Xerez CD	1-3 L	0-1 L
Club Atletico Central	0-1 L	4-1 W
Betis Deportivo	3-2 W	0-2 L
Puente Genil	0-1 L	0-0 D
CP Mijas	2-6 L	0-0 D
Atletico Sanluqueno	0-1 L	2-2 D
Sevilla Atletico	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	1 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Marbella FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Tamaraceite

LLLLWLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CD Estepona Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-3	0-5	2	7	L
01/11	Xerez CD Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
25/10	Club Atletico Central Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
18/10	Betis Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-2	3-2	5	6	W
11/10	Puente Genil Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
04/10	CA Antoniano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
27/09	CP Mijas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-3	2-6	4	5	L
20/09	Rec de Huelva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-3	3	6	L
13/09	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
06/09	Sevilla Atletico Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Marbella FC

DLWDLLDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Las Palmas B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
01/11	CP Mijas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
25/10	Xerez CD Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
18/10	CD Estepona Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	CD Badajoz Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
04/10	Betis Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-2	3	10	L
27/09	Puente Genil Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
20/09	Club Atletico Central Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	3-0	4-1	4	6	W
13/09	Sevilla Atletico Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-3	0-3	4	4	L
06/09	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	2-2	2	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Tamaraceite vs Marbella FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Marbella FC win (40%). Probabilities: UD Tamaraceite 33%, draw 27%, Marbella FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in UD Tamaraceite vs Marbella FC?

The model expects 2.55 goals (UD Tamaraceite 1.19 · Marbella FC 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Tamaraceite vs Marbella FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.