Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · 15/11, 17:00

Prediction: CP Mijas vs CD Estepona

Team pages: CD Estepona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

CP Mijas1.46

CD Estepona1.79

1X2

30% 25% 44%

CP Mijas Draw CD Estepona

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CP Mijas 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWWDDD

CD Estepona 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CP Mijas 1533 · CD Estepona 1507

	CP Mijas	Draw	CD Estepona
Our model	31%	25%	45%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CP Mijas	CD Estepona
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	1.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	6.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +4’	3.00	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rec de Huelva	10	6	3	1	21	8	21
2	Don Benito	10	6	2	2	18	13	20
3	Ciudad Lucena	10	5	4	1	17	10	19
4	CD Badajoz	10	4	5	1	10	7	17
5	CD Estepona	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
6	Betis Deportivo	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
7	Xerez CD	10	4	3	3	12	7	15
8	CP Mijas	10	3	6	1	18	14	15
9	Club Atletico Central	10	5	0	5	13	15	15
10	Sevilla Atletico	10	3	5	2	18	16	14
11	Linares Deportivo	10	3	5	2	13	13	14
12	Puente Genil	10	3	3	4	11	10	12
13	Atletico Sanluqueno	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
14	Marbella FC	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
15	Tenerife B	9	3	1	5	11	14	10
16	UD Tamaraceite	10	2	0	8	8	23	6
17	CA Antoniano	10	1	3	6	10	19	6
18	Las Palmas B	10	1	2	7	5	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CP Mijas	CD Estepona
Marbella FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Tenerife B	3-1 W	1-2 L
UD Tamaraceite	6-2 W	5-0 W
CA Antoniano	1-1 D	1-4 L
Ciudad Lucena	1-1 D	2-2 D
Puente Genil	0-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CP Mijas

LDDWDWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rec de Huelva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
01/11	Marbella FC Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
24/10	Betis Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
18/10	Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	3-1	3-1	3	4	W
11/10	Sevilla Atletico Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
04/10	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
27/09	UD Tamaraceite Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	3-2	6-2	6	5	W
20/09	CA Antoniano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
13/09	Ciudad Lucena Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-1	3	8	D
06/09	Puente Genil Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-3	0-4	–	–	L

CD Estepona

DLWLWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UD Tamaraceite Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	3-0	5-0	3	7	W
01/11	CA Antoniano Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
24/10	Ciudad Lucena Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
18/10	Marbella FC Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Club Atletico Central Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-1	3-2	8	9	W
03/10	Don Benito Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
27/09	Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
19/09	Puente Genil Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
12/09	Linares Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
05/09	Xerez CD Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	9	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CP Mijas vs CD Estepona?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Estepona win (44%). Probabilities: CP Mijas 30%, draw 25%, CD Estepona 44%.

How many goals are expected in CP Mijas vs CD Estepona?

The model expects 3.25 goals (CP Mijas 1.46 · CD Estepona 1.79), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CP Mijas vs CD Estepona?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.