Football · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · 15/11, 18:00

Prediction: Xerez CD vs CA Antoniano

Team pages: Xerez CD · CA Antoniano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Xerez CD1.8

CA Antoniano0.87

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Xerez CD Draw CA Antoniano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Xerez CD 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDLWWW

CA Antoniano 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLDLWL

Head-to-head

Xerez CD 1–2–3 CA Antoniano (6 last)

CA Antoniano3-2Xerez CD
Xerez CD2-0CA Antoniano
Xerez CD1-2CA Antoniano
CA Antoniano1-0Xerez CD
CA Antoniano2-2Xerez CD
Xerez CD1-1CA Antoniano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xerez CD 1500 · CA Antoniano 1450

	Xerez CD	Draw	CA Antoniano
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	59%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Xerez CD (rating 1500 vs 1450).
H2H favours CA Antoniano: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xerez CD	CA Antoniano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0	5.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.70

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +16’	1.53	3.70	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Xerez CD 1–2–3 CA Antoniano

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	CA Antoniano	3-2 HT 2-1	Xerez CD
14/09/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	Xerez CD	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Antoniano
16/02/25 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	Xerez CD	1-2 HT 0-1	CA Antoniano
06/10/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	CA Antoniano	1-0 HT 1-0	Xerez CD
26/03/23 Spain Tercera Group 10	CA Antoniano	2-2	Xerez CD
04/12/22 Spain Tercera Group 10	Xerez CD	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Antoniano

Standings · Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4 · Segunda Federacion 26/27, Group 4

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rec de Huelva	10	6	3	1	21	8	21
2	Don Benito	10	6	2	2	18	13	20
3	Ciudad Lucena	10	5	4	1	17	10	19
4	CD Badajoz	10	4	5	1	10	7	17
5	CD Estepona	10	4	3	3	18	15	15
6	Betis Deportivo	9	4	3	2	12	7	15
7	Xerez CD	10	4	3	3	12	7	15
8	CP Mijas	10	3	6	1	18	14	15
9	Club Atletico Central	10	5	0	5	13	15	15
10	Sevilla Atletico	10	3	5	2	18	16	14
11	Linares Deportivo	10	3	5	2	13	13	14
12	Puente Genil	10	3	3	4	11	10	12
13	Atletico Sanluqueno	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
14	Marbella FC	10	2	4	4	8	11	10
15	Tenerife B	9	3	1	5	11	14	10
16	UD Tamaraceite	10	2	0	8	8	23	6
17	CA Antoniano	10	1	3	6	10	19	6
18	Las Palmas B	10	1	2	7	5	18	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xerez CD	CA Antoniano
UD Tamaraceite	3-1 W	0-1 L
Ciudad Lucena	0-1 L	0-3 L
Betis Deportivo	1-1 D	0-0 D
Rec de Huelva	0-1 L	0-5 L
Don Benito	0-0 D	1-2 L
CD Estepona	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Xerez CD (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Xerez CD

DLDLWDLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Atletico Sanluqueno Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	4-0	4	9	W
01/11	UD Tamaraceite Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
25/10	Marbella FC Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
18/10	Ciudad Lucena Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
10/10	Betis Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
04/10	Tenerife B Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	2-1	10	8	W
27/09	Rec de Huelva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
20/09	Don Benito Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/09	CD Badajoz Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
05/09	CD Estepona Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	4	6	D

CA Antoniano

LDDLLLDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Club Atletico Central Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
01/11	CD Estepona Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
24/10	Rec de Huelva Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-2	0-5	6	4	L
18/10	Sevilla Atletico Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
11/10	Linares Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
04/10	UD Tamaraceite Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
27/09	Ciudad Lucena Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
20/09	CP Mijas Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
13/09	Betis Deportivo Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
06/09	Don Benito Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	1-0	1-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xerez CD vs CA Antoniano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Xerez CD win (58%). Probabilities: Xerez CD 58%, draw 25%, CA Antoniano 17%.

How many goals are expected in Xerez CD vs CA Antoniano?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Xerez CD 1.8 · CA Antoniano 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Xerez CD vs CA Antoniano?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.