Football · Malta Premier League · 24/10, 15:30
Prediction: Marsaxlokk FC vs Sliema Wanderers
Team pages: Marsaxlokk FC · Sliema Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Marsaxlokk FC1.19
Sliema Wanderers1.23
1X2
Marsaxlokk FC
Draw
Sliema Wanderers
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Marsaxlokk FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Sliema Wanderers
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marsaxlokk FC
2–3–1
Sliema Wanderers
(6 last)
- Marsaxlokk FC1-1Sliema Wanderers
- Sliema Wanderers0-0Marsaxlokk FC
- Sliema Wanderers1-1Marsaxlokk FC
- Marsaxlokk FC0-2Sliema Wanderers
- Marsaxlokk FC2-1Sliema Wanderers
- Sliema Wanderers0-1Marsaxlokk FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marsaxlokk FC 1519 · Sliema Wanderers 1524
| Marsaxlokk FC | Draw | Sliema Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Marsaxlokk FC: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marsaxlokk FC | Sliema Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 5.8 | 2.4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marsaxlokk FC 2–3–1 Sliema Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/26 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sliema Wanderers |
| 06/01/26 Malta Premier League | Sliema Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 26/10/25 Malta Premier League | Sliema Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 12/07/25 Club Friendly List | Marsaxlokk FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Sliema Wanderers |
| 19/04/25 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sliema Wanderers |
| 01/03/25 Malta Premier League | Sliema Wanderers | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 3 | Floriana | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Sliema Wanderers | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| 5 | Mosta FC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 6 | Hamrun Spartans | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | Hibernians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| 8 | Balzan FC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Birkirkara | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 4 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marsaxlokk FC | Sliema Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Birzebbuga | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Birkirkara | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Floriana | 5-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Mosta FC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Valletta | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Hibernians | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Balzan FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Marsaxlokk FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marsaxlokk FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/10 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
3-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Sliema Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Birkirkara Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Birzebbuga Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 21/08 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/04 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marsaxlokk FC vs Sliema Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sliema Wanderers win (37%). Probabilities: Marsaxlokk FC 35%, draw 28%, Sliema Wanderers 37%.
How many goals are expected in Marsaxlokk FC vs Sliema Wanderers?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Marsaxlokk FC 1.19 · Sliema Wanderers 1.23), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Marsaxlokk FC vs Sliema Wanderers?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.