Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Winterthur II vs FC Freienbach

Team pages: Winterthur II · FC Freienbach

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Winterthur II1.72

FC Freienbach1.4

1X2

45% 25% 31%

Winterthur II Draw FC Freienbach

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Winterthur II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Freienbach 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Winterthur II 3–1–0 FC Freienbach (4 last)

FC Freienbach0-2Winterthur II
Winterthur II3-3FC Freienbach
Winterthur II3-0FC Freienbach
Winterthur II5-0FC Freienbach

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Winterthur II 1466 · FC Freienbach 1483

	Winterthur II	Draw	FC Freienbach
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Winterthur II: 3-1-0.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Winterthur II	FC Freienbach
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 8	1.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.78
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +7’	2.00	3.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +53’	2.04	3.78	2.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Winterthur II 3–1–0 FC Freienbach

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	FC Freienbach	0-2	Winterthur II
02/11/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	Winterthur II	3-3 HT 1-2	FC Freienbach
13/04/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	Winterthur II	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Freienbach
10/03/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	Winterthur II	5-0 HT 1-0	FC Freienbach

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 1. Liga Classic 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tuggen	6	6	0	0	18	6	18
2	FC Baden	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	FC Thalwil	6	3	2	1	11	5	11
4	FC Dietikon	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
5	St Gallen II	6	3	1	2	13	14	10
6	FC Kosova	6	2	3	1	12	10	9
7	AC Taverne	6	2	2	2	11	11	8
8	FC Collina d'Oro	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
9	USV Eschen-Mauren	6	2	1	3	8	14	7
10	FC Mendrisio	6	1	3	2	8	8	6
11	Winterthur II	6	2	0	4	6	7	6
12	FC Freienbach	6	1	3	2	8	11	6
13	Gossau	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
13	FC Wettswil-Bonstetten	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
15	FC Widnau	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
16	Locarno	6	0	3	3	6	9	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Winterthur II	FC Freienbach
FC Collina d'Oro	0-1 L	3-1 W
FC Mendrisio	2-1 W	0-2 L
FC Kosova	1-2 L	3-3 D
FC Thalwil	2-0 W	0-3 L
FC Baden	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Freienbach (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Winterthur II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
05/09	FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
29/08	FC Mendrisio Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
22/08	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	FC Thalwil Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	FC Baden Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	SV Hongg Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	FC Freienbach Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-0	–	–	W

FC Freienbach

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/09	FC Mendrisio Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
29/08	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-3	–	–	D
23/08	FC Thalwil Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
14/08	FC Baden Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-2	2-2	3	10	D
09/08	Gossau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
30/05	SV Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/05	FC Baden Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
13/05	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	2-1	3-3	1	8	D
09/05	Winterthur II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Winterthur II vs FC Freienbach?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Winterthur II win (45%). Probabilities: Winterthur II 45%, draw 25%, FC Freienbach 31%.

How many goals are expected in Winterthur II vs FC Freienbach?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Winterthur II 1.72 · FC Freienbach 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Winterthur II vs FC Freienbach?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.