Prediction: Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons
Expected goals: 2.64 (Mbeya City 1.54 · Tanzania Prisons 1.1). The model gives 45% home, 29% draw, 25% away. Over 2 goals (60%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Mbeya City with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; Tanzania Prisons has piled up 6-0-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Mbeya City won 2 and Tanzania Prisons 2, with 2 draws.
| Mbeya City | Draw | Tanzania Prisons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 30% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tanzania Prisons (rating 1481 vs 1537).
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mbeya City | Tanzania Prisons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.9 | 1.7 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mbeya City 2–2–2 Tanzania Prisons
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Tanzania Premier League | Tanzania Prisons | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Mbeya City |
| 21/10/25 Tanzania Premier League | Mbeya City | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Tanzania Prisons |
| 25/12/22 Tanzania Premier League | Mbeya City | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Tanzania Prisons |
| 09/09/22 Tanzania Premier League | Tanzania Prisons | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Mbeya City |
| 27/02/22 Tanzania Premier League | Tanzania Prisons | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Mbeya City |
| 28/09/21 Tanzania Premier League | Mbeya City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tanzania Prisons |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mbeya City | Tanzania Prisons |
|---|---|---|
| Dodoma Jiji FC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Pamba SC | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Simba Sports Club | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Mtibwa Sugar | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Singida Black Stars | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| JKT Tanzania | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tanzania Prisons (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mbeya City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 27/06 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 24/06 | Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/05 | Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 21/05 | Namungo FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Tanzania Prisons
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/06 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/05 | Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Azam FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 14/05 | Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 04/05 | Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mbeya City win (45%). Probabilities: Mbeya City 45%, draw 29%, Tanzania Prisons 25%.
How many goals are expected in Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Mbeya City 1.54 · Tanzania Prisons 1.1), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Mbeya City vs Tanzania Prisons?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.