Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs Gedania Gdansk

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · Gedania Gdansk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Unia Swarzedz1.93

Gedania Gdansk1.24

1X2

53% 24% 24%

Unia Swarzedz Draw Gedania Gdansk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDDWDW

Gedania Gdansk 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 4–2 Gedania Gdansk (6 last)

Gedania Gdansk0-2Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz5-0Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk1-2Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz3-4Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk0-2Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz1-3Gedania Gdansk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1536 · Gedania Gdansk 1498

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	Gedania Gdansk
Our model	52%	24%	23%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Unia Swarzedz: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	Gedania Gdansk
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +52’	1.70	3.90	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 4–0–2 Gedania Gdansk

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/25 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	0-2 HT 0-0	Unia Swarzedz
05/10/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	5-0 HT 1-0	Gedania Gdansk
20/04/24 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	1-2 HT 0-1	Unia Swarzedz
22/09/23 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	3-4 HT 1-1	Gedania Gdansk
29/04/23 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	0-2 HT 0-0	Unia Swarzedz
24/09/22 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	1-3 HT 1-0	Gedania Gdansk

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	Gedania Gdansk
Lipno Steszew	2-1 W	2-1 W
Blekitni Stargard	0-0 D	2-2 D
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-1 W	3-2 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 D	0-0 D
Baltyk Koszalin	1-1 D	1-3 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	7-0 W	6-1 W
Flota Swinoujscie	2-0 W	1-1 D
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Unia Swarzedz (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Swarzedz

DLLWWDDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
31/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
24/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
17/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
03/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-0	7-0	6	3	W
26/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D

Gedania Gdansk

LDWLDWDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
31/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
24/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
17/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	3	6	D
10/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	2	W
03/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs Gedania Gdansk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Swarzedz win (53%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 53%, draw 24%, Gedania Gdansk 24%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs Gedania Gdansk?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Unia Swarzedz 1.93 · Gedania Gdansk 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Gedania Gdansk?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.