Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Notec Czarnkow vs Lipno Steszew

Team pages: Notec Czarnkow · Lipno Steszew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Notec Czarnkow1.47

Lipno Steszew1.21

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Notec Czarnkow Draw Lipno Steszew

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Notec Czarnkow 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLWLD

Lipno Steszew 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Notec Czarnkow 1–1 Lipno Steszew (2 last)

Lipno Steszew1-0Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow3-1Lipno Steszew

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notec Czarnkow	Lipno Steszew
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.89

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.00
X	3.82 → 3.82	Pinn 3.82
2	2.81 → 2.81	Pinn 2.81

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:02 +3’	2.00	3.82	2.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notec Czarnkow 1–0–1 Lipno Steszew

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	1-0 HT 1-0	Notec Czarnkow
12/10/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	3-1 HT 1-0	Lipno Steszew

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	Czarni Polaniec	17	9	4	4	29	23	31
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
5	Wisloka Debica	17	9	2	6	26	25	29
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notec Czarnkow	Lipno Steszew
Blekitni Stargard	0-0 D	4-3 W
Chemik Bydgoszcz	1-4 L	0-1 L
Victoria Wrzesnia	1-0 W	1-1 D
Baltyk Koszalin	0-3 L	2-1 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-1 D	1-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	3-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notec Czarnkow

WLDLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
31/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	–	–	L
24/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
17/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
10/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
19/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
05/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W

Lipno Steszew

LLWDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	5	L
31/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
24/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
17/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-3	2	6	W
03/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
26/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
12/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
05/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notec Czarnkow vs Lipno Steszew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notec Czarnkow win (42%). Probabilities: Notec Czarnkow 42%, draw 28%, Lipno Steszew 30%.

How many goals are expected in Notec Czarnkow vs Lipno Steszew?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Notec Czarnkow 1.47 · Lipno Steszew 1.21), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Notec Czarnkow vs Lipno Steszew?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.