Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Elana Torun vs Blekitni Stargard

Team pages: Elana Torun · Blekitni Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Elana Torun1.32

Blekitni Stargard1.63

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Elana Torun Draw Blekitni Stargard

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWWWDL

Blekitni Stargard 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLDWDD

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 3–1–2 Blekitni Stargard (6 last)

Elana Torun1-0Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard0-2Elana Torun
Blekitni Stargard4-0Elana Torun
Elana Torun0-2Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard3-3Elana Torun
Elana Torun3-0Blekitni Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1520 · Blekitni Stargard 1508

	Elana Torun	Draw	Blekitni Stargard
Our model	30%	26%	44%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Elana Torun: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	Blekitni Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +19’	2.88	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 3–1–2 Blekitni Stargard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-0 HT 1-0	Blekitni Stargard
09/08/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	0-2 HT 0-2	Elana Torun
06/04/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	4-0 HT 1-0	Elana Torun
08/09/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-2 HT 0-1	Blekitni Stargard
25/11/23 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	3-3 HT 1-3	Elana Torun
05/08/23 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	3-0 HT 1-0	Blekitni Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	Blekitni Stargard
Chemik Bydgoszcz	1-2 L	3-3 D
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 D	1-1 D
Baltyk Koszalin	3-2 W	2-0 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	3-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elana Torun

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	4	10	L
31/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
24/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
17/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
09/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
03/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
26/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L

Blekitni Stargard

LWDDWLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	9	D
31/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
24/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
17/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
10/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-2	3-4	16	6	L
03/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	4-0	5-0	1	2	W
26/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs Blekitni Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blekitni Stargard win (44%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 31%, draw 25%, Blekitni Stargard 44%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Elana Torun 1.32 · Blekitni Stargard 1.63), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.