Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia

Team pages: Kluczevia Stargard · Victoria Wrzesnia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Kluczevia Stargard1.79

Victoria Wrzesnia0.94

1X2

57% 23% 19%

Kluczevia Stargard Draw Victoria Wrzesnia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Kluczevia Stargard 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWDWWD

Victoria Wrzesnia 1-8-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDDWDLDD

Head-to-head

Kluczevia Stargard 0–2 Victoria Wrzesnia (2 last)

Victoria Wrzesnia2-1Kluczevia Stargard
Kluczevia Stargard0-1Victoria Wrzesnia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kluczevia Stargard 1516 · Victoria Wrzesnia 1504

	Kluczevia Stargard	Draw	Victoria Wrzesnia
Our model	56%	25%	18%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Victoria Wrzesnia: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kluczevia Stargard	Victoria Wrzesnia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +37’	1.55	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kluczevia Stargard 0–0–2 Victoria Wrzesnia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	2-1 HT 1-1	Kluczevia Stargard
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	Kluczevia Stargard	0-1 HT 0-0	Victoria Wrzesnia

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kluczevia Stargard	Victoria Wrzesnia
KKS 1925 Kalisz	0-1 L	3-3 D
Wda Swiecie	2-1 W	3-3 D
Elana Torun	2-1 W	0-0 D
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kluczevia Stargard

LWWLLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
04/11	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-3	4-3	4	4	W
31/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
24/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
17/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
09/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L

Victoria Wrzesnia

DDDDDWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-0	3-3	–	–	D
31/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
17/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
03/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
26/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	11	4	D
05/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kluczevia Stargard win (57%). Probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 57%, draw 23%, Victoria Wrzesnia 19%.

How many goals are expected in Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Kluczevia Stargard 1.79 · Victoria Wrzesnia 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Wrzesnia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.