Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KSS Kotwica Kornik

Team pages: Polonia Sroda Wlkp · KSS Kotwica Kornik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Polonia Sroda Wlkp3.18

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.18

1X2

77% 13% 10%

Polonia Sroda Wlkp Draw KSS Kotwica Kornik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWWDWL

KSS Kotwica Kornik 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2–0 KSS Kotwica Kornik (2 last)

Polonia Sroda Wlkp3-1KSS Kotwica Kornik
KSS Kotwica Kornik0-5Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 1562 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1420

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	Draw	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	79%	12%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp (rating 1562 vs 1420).
H2H favours Polonia Sroda Wlkp: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.3 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.50

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.98

2 (+2.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:51 +20’	1.17	7.50	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Sroda Wlkp 2–0–0 KSS Kotwica Kornik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	3-1 HT 1-1	KSS Kotwica Kornik
26/10/24 Poland III Liga	KSS Kotwica Kornik	0-5 HT 0-3	Polonia Sroda Wlkp

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Sroda Wlkp	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Lech Poznan II	3-2 W	1-4 L
Kluczevia Stargard	2-0 W	0-1 L
Wda Swiecie	4-0 W	0-2 L
Elana Torun	2-2 D	1-3 L
Notec Czarnkow	0-0 D	1-1 D
Unia Swarzedz	4-3 W	0-7 L
Grom Nowy Staw	4-4 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Sroda Wlkp (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Sroda Wlkp

DWDDWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	4	2	W
24/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	6	7	W
09/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
03/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	5	W
26/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
19/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	5	W
05/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-2	4-4	7	6	D

KSS Kotwica Kornik

WWLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	4	2	L
31/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
24/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
17/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	2	2	L
10/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-7	8	3	L
26/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
19/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Sroda Wlkp win (77%). Probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wlkp 77%, draw 13%, KSS Kotwica Kornik 10%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Polonia Sroda Wlkp 3.18 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Sroda Wlkp vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.