Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KSZO Ostrowiec

Team pages: Siarka Tarnobrzeg · KSZO Ostrowiec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.34

KSZO Ostrowiec1.6

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Draw KSZO Ostrowiec

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLLWWL

KSZO Ostrowiec 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWWWLL

Head-to-head

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–1–3 KSZO Ostrowiec (6 last)

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1-2KSZO Ostrowiec
KSZO Ostrowiec1-2Siarka Tarnobrzeg
KSZO Ostrowiec3-0Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg2-1KSZO Ostrowiec
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1-2KSZO Ostrowiec
KSZO Ostrowiec1-1Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1506 · KSZO Ostrowiec 1523

	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	Draw	KSZO Ostrowiec
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	33%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KSZO Ostrowiec: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	KSZO Ostrowiec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	3.5 / 9.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.80

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:00 +7’	2.75	3.80	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–1–3 KSZO Ostrowiec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-2 HT 1-1	KSZO Ostrowiec
11/10/25 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	1-2 HT 0-2	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
22/03/25 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	3-0 HT 1-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
11/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-1 HT 1-1	KSZO Ostrowiec
24/08/24 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-2 HT 1-0	KSZO Ostrowiec
13/07/24 Europe Friendlies	KSZO Ostrowiec	1-1 HT 1-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	KSZO Ostrowiec
Wisla Krakow II	0-1 L	1-0 W
Chelmianka Chelm	1-1 D	0-0 D
Wieczysta Krakow II	2-0 W	0-1 L
Wisloka Debica	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Siarka Tarnobrzeg (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

WWDWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/10	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
17/10	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
09/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
03/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	7	L
19/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

KSZO Ostrowiec

DWDLDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	15	3	L
24/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/10	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
03/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	15	3	L
19/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
05/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KSZO Ostrowiec?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KSZO Ostrowiec win (43%). Probabilities: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 32%, draw 25%, KSZO Ostrowiec 43%.

How many goals are expected in Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KSZO Ostrowiec?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.34 · KSZO Ostrowiec 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KSZO Ostrowiec?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.