Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Star Starachowice vs Naprzod Jedrzejow

Team pages: Star Starachowice · Naprzod Jedrzejow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Star Starachowice2.16

Naprzod Jedrzejow1.48

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Star Starachowice Draw Naprzod Jedrzejow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Star Starachowice 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLWWWW

Naprzod Jedrzejow 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

Star Starachowice 2–0 Naprzod Jedrzejow (2 last)

Star Starachowice2-1Naprzod Jedrzejow
Naprzod Jedrzejow0-1Star Starachowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1555 · Naprzod Jedrzejow 1554

	Star Starachowice	Draw	Naprzod Jedrzejow
Our model	52%	22%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Star Starachowice: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Star Starachowice	Naprzod Jedrzejow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +22’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 2–0–0 Naprzod Jedrzejow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	2-1 HT 0-1	Naprzod Jedrzejow
11/10/25 Poland III Liga	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0-1 HT 0-1	Star Starachowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Star Starachowice	Naprzod Jedrzejow
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2-2 D	3-1 W
Wieczysta Krakow II	0-0 D	2-2 D
Wisloka Debica	2-3 L	0-4 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Naprzod Jedrzejow (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Star Starachowice

DLDWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/10	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-1	4-3	7	10	W
23/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	3	14	W
10/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
01/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
26/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
19/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Naprzod Jedrzejow

DDWWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
24/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-4	0-4	11	2	L
11/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
03/10	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	3-1	3-1	–	–	W
26/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
19/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	4-1	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
05/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Star Starachowice win (52%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 52%, draw 23%, Naprzod Jedrzejow 25%.

How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Star Starachowice 2.16 · Naprzod Jedrzejow 1.48), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Naprzod Jedrzejow?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.