Football · Spain La Liga · 16/08, 17:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Team pages: Real Madrid · Real Sociedad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Real Madrid2.45

Real Sociedad1.1

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Real Madrid Draw Real Sociedad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWLWWW

Real Sociedad 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDLDDW

Head-to-head

Real Madrid 5–1 Real Sociedad (6 last)

Real Madrid4-1Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad1-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-0Real Sociedad
Real Madrid3-4Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad0-1Real Madrid
Real Sociedad0-2Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1552 · Real Sociedad 1464

	Real Madrid	Draw	Real Sociedad
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	65%	22%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1552 vs 1464).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid	Real Sociedad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:28 +18775’	1.44	4.33	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–0–1 Real Sociedad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-1 HT 3-1	Real Sociedad
13/09/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	1-2 HT 0-2	Real Madrid
24/05/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad
01/04/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Madrid	3-4 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad
26/02/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Sociedad	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
14/09/24 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Real Sociedad
Sevilla	1-0 W	0-1 L
Espanyol	2-0 W	1-1 D
Real Betis	1-1 D	2-2 D
Girona	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Real Madrid

LDLWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
03/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
24/04	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/04	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
15/04	Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League	3-2	3-4	2	5	L
10/04	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
07/04	Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League	0-1	1-2	8	5	L

Real Sociedad

DLDLDDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Wolverhampton Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
18/07	Racing Santander Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
23/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-2	3-4	3	5	L
14/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
09/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
04/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
26/04	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	3-3	4	8	D
22/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
18/04	Atletico Madrid Spain Copa del Rey	2-1	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (65%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 65%, draw 21%, Real Sociedad 14%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Real Madrid 2.45 · Real Sociedad 1.1), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.